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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old June 1 2013, 06:43 PM   #1576
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Star Trek into darkness made almost $7m dollars on Saturday in China !!!!!
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Old June 1 2013, 06:46 PM   #1577
Roald
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Well lets set the target at $230m. Anything more than that is excellent but overall it is definitely a disappointment. It's a good job overseas has improved enough to more than make up for the North American markets' poor showing.

I think creatively they should do it different next time and try to come across as more of a fun adventure rather than dealing with the darkness of war, conspiracy and terrorism. Doing that may bring in more families that might have been put off by the darkness this time round. More of the Nibiru type stuff rather than someone murdering people at a meeting and making a father kill himself and others etc etc. IMO
Agreed. The funny thing is, -no pun intended-, that there IS a lot of fun adventure in this film! Raiders Of The Lost Ark also had dark themes and images, but you're right, there was never an emphasis on that in the marketing. Raiders was presented as a big, wild, fun thrill ride, but one could definatley make a very scary, eerie, DARK trailer of Raiders. And I think that's what happened to STID... Maybe JJ/ Paramount/ whoever thought that capitalizing on the success of The Dark Knight would be the best way to go marketing wise, but I think it really backfired.

Man, that first teaser poster... I thought it was cool, I still think it is... But it's a guy standing in a destroyed city, burning in flames... And that darn title... In a way, it's such a cool title, but after seeing the film, it doesn't fit at all... There was probably a much better, catchier title out there...
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Old June 1 2013, 06:51 PM   #1578
Phily B
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

It could possibly do more OS than DOM if it continues to make impressive gains on 09 in the other territories. That's a plus point, Paramount will probably try to figure out what went wrong domestically as no one really knows, though I suppose its possible its hit the ceiling. I've said for a while it's possible Trek will benefit from new Star Wars movies too.
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Old June 1 2013, 06:53 PM   #1579
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Agreed about Raiders of the Lost Ark. Between the writers, director and the marketing people they need to make and market the next movie as a fun adventure rather than a journey "into darkness" if they want to get more of the critical under-25s into the theatre because it is a big demographic to miss out on. I have started to believe that the reason that demographic is down on ST09 is indeed because of the emphasis on darkness and revenge and terrorism in the trailers and title of STiD that has made families and kids skip it. I think ST09 got the balance right and STID went too far over to the 'Dark side'
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Old June 1 2013, 06:56 PM   #1580
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Phily B wrote: View Post
It could possibly do more OS than DOM if it continues to make impressive gains on 09 in the other territories. That's a plus point, Paramount will probably try to figure out what went wrong domestically as no one really knows, though I suppose its possible its hit the ceiling. I've said for a while it's possible Trek will benefit from new Star Wars movies too.
This does pose a problem with how they approach the next movie. They placed heavy emphasis on the action and the bad guy in the overseas marketing so the question is do they do this again to get more OS at the possible expense of less DOM?

Maybe what gets more overseas people into the theatre is actually a turn off for domestic fans?
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Old June 1 2013, 07:02 PM   #1581
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/...ate/2013-06-01

Early estimate for this weekend is $15.6m a huge 58% drop. This is the first awful number for STID and really puts the brakes on the box office. It will definitely not get anywhere near the $257m of ST09 and might fall up to $35m short! It is a disappointment when the increased ticket prices of 4yrs of inflation and the added 3D premium is taken into account. Millions of people who watched ST09 did not come back to STID.

The is still a chance for a slightly higher number if Saturday overperforms.. Fingers crossed.
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Old June 1 2013, 07:09 PM   #1582
JamesRye
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Wow! is that figure of $7m for Friday in China correct? $7 million just on one day.

Paramount are going to be over the moon - clearly China is going to be as big a market as the US in the future.

$7 million in one day (shakes head). Does anyone have any predictions for the total China gross? Surely it's gotta be $50 million +

Hopefully the final figures are saved by the rest of the world. If it can top out with anything higher than $400 million then that is a big success.

I actually think that they should have called it Star Trek into the Light, or Star Trek out of darkness or for a bit of cheesy fun:

Maybe the next one should be:

Star Trek to strange, new worlds
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Old June 1 2013, 07:13 PM   #1583
beamMe
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Star Trek hit the domestic 230 million mark after being in distribution for over a month and the 250 million after over two months.

Suggestion: Give STID at least that much time before declaring it a failure or disappointment.
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Old June 1 2013, 07:23 PM   #1584
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

JamesRye wrote: View Post
Wow! is that figure of $7m for Friday in China correct? $7 million just on one day.

Paramount are going to be over the moon - clearly China is going to be as big a market as the US in the future.

$7 million in one day (shakes head). Does anyone have any predictions for the total China gross? Surely it's gotta be $50 million +

Hopefully the final figures are saved by the rest of the world. If it can top out with anything higher than $400 million then that is a big success.

I actually think that they should have called it Star Trek into the Light, or Star Trek out of darkness or for a bit of cheesy fun:

Maybe the next one should be:

Star Trek to strange, new worlds
I think so, yes. According to: This Post on boxoffice.com

It made 42m Chinese Yuan which is $6.84m dollars and that same poster believes Star Trek will get to over $50m in China.

If you use google chrome you can translate this page: http://movie.mtime.com/106291/ which is a China IMDB like website and the natives have rated it 8.4/10 which is higher than Iron Man 3 @ 7.7/10 so it seems to be going down quite well.

China will be the biggest box office market in a decade and I suspect many co-productions and many more Chinese-centric movies will be the result. For example, a future Star Trek movie might choose to centre an Earthbound story on Shanghai instead of San Francisco etc..
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Old June 1 2013, 07:25 PM   #1585
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

beamMe wrote: View Post
Star Trek hit the domestic 230 million mark after being in distribution for over a month and the 250 million after over two months.

Suggestion: Give STID at least that much time before declaring it a failure or disappointment.
I understand what you are saying however you can always use the current weekends gross and percentage drop as an excellent indication of how a movie will perform until it leaves the cinema. From this figure I think it is possible to conclude that it will finish at around $220-$235m but I do agree that it may be wrong and it may get to $250+ but the chance is now very small.
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Old June 1 2013, 07:39 PM   #1586
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

STID still ahead of ST09 as of the end of Friday 31st May, $169.1 vs $167.5 but by Tuesday it will be nearly $10m behind and that margin will continue to increase until close.

Last edited by Flake; June 1 2013 at 07:49 PM. Reason: Tuesday not Monday ;)
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Old June 1 2013, 07:48 PM   #1587
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

$240 would be the apex I reckon at thi stands though a $220ish target seems likely. However worldwide target is going to crack $200 million based off starts in China & Korea. Worldwide probably a target of $440-460 seems likely
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Old June 1 2013, 07:55 PM   #1588
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Jax wrote: View Post
$240 would be the apex I reckon at thi stands though a $220ish target seems likely. However worldwide target is going to crack $200 million based off starts in China & Korea. Worldwide probably a target of $440-460 seems likely
Yes, I think with $50+ million from China we could end up @ $225/$240 = $465m WW.

Trouble is that though it is an increase from $385m we got last time it will not be a big enough increase relative to the extra budget and WW marketing campaign.

The quoted budget for ST09 was $150m and now STID is $190m, so it needed an extra $80m from WW to make it back - which it did BUT also the advertising budget for overseas increased as well so I think STID will make less money than ST09 due to the extra expenses. Paramount spent more and would have wanted more of an increase after 3D, Inflation and overseas expansion are taken into account.

Lower budget for sure next time. I think it will still be 3D though.
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Old June 1 2013, 08:03 PM   #1589
BillJ
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post

Lower budget for sure next time.
I don't know, Paramount may be in this for the long haul.

There were reports that FX paid 12% of the gross for the basic cable rights to Star Trek 2009 (in the U.S.), if that figure holds for Into Darkness that will add another $50 million to Paramount's coffers. When you factor in International broadcast rights, premium cable rights and home-video distribution this movie may end up in the $600-650 million dollar range. Not The Avengers/Dark Knight territory but it'll make a very healthy profit for the studio.
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Old June 1 2013, 08:14 PM   #1590
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

BillJ wrote: View Post
Flake wrote: View Post

Lower budget for sure next time.
I don't know, Paramount may be in this for the long haul.

There were reports that FX paid 12% of the gross for the basic cable rights to Star Trek 2009 (in the U.S.), if that figure holds for Into Darkness that will add another $50 million to Paramount's coffers. When you factor in International broadcast rights, premium cable rights and home-video distribution this movie may end up in the $600-650 million dollar range. Not The Avengers/Dark Knight territory but it'll make a very healthy profit for the studio.
Well it will be less profitable than ST09 I think...

Lots of guesswork (educated guesswork!)!!

ST09 Quoted Production Budget: $150m
ST09 Worldwide Ad Budget: $100m (guess)
ST09 WW Gross: $385m
50% Back to Studio: $192.5m
Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $57.5m

STID Quoted Production Budget: $190m
STID Worldwide Ad Budget: $130m (guess)
STID WW Gross: $465m ??
50% Back to Studio: $232.5m
Profit needed from DVD/TV/PPV/Rental to break-even: $87.5m
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