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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 31 2013, 01:46 PM   #1501
Screamy
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

throwback wrote: View Post
The film needs to make $380 million to be successful.
And what made up metric are you basing that on?
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Old May 31 2013, 01:51 PM   #1502
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Roald wrote: View Post
LOKAI of CHERON wrote: View Post
JamesRye wrote: View Post
Some of you guys need to get a grip dammit!

STID will cross the $300 million dollar mark this weekend (global total) and by the end of its run, will probably make $400-$500 million. This will make it the most successful Trek movie ever (bar the possible exception of TMP).

Crikey - it's going to beat Star Trek 09's global gross and do rather nicely, thank you very much.
I've used a few inflation calculators, and TMP's 1979 worldwide take of $139,000,000 is worth roughly $433,000,000 in today's money. I realise there are many other factors to take into account, but I do think the comparison is a fair guide.

Based on that, STID has a good shot at becoming the most successful Trek movie - when judged by the final dollar tally at least.
No, it's not a fair guide. In 1979, there were no crappy downloadable cam versions that legions of people watch instead of going to the cinema... There wasn't even home video, so the only way to see TMP was in the cinema (and thereafter, hoping it would air on television in about 3 to 4 years at minimum)... Today, so many people will think: 'I'll check it out when it comes out on DVD/blu ray/ whatever'. I think when you take that into account, the whole 'unadjusted gross' check of films that were released prior to the home cinema age is very flawed...
Flake wrote: View Post
Roald wrote: View Post
No, it's not a fair guide. In 1979, there were no crappy downloadable cam versions that legions of people watch instead of going to the cinema... There wasn't even home video, so the only way to see TMP was in the cinema (and thereafter, hoping it would air on television in about 3 to 4 years at minimum)... Today, so many people will think: 'I'll check it out when it comes out on DVD/blu ray/ whatever'. I think when you take that into account, the whole 'unadjusted gross' check of films that were released prior to the home cinema age is very flawed...
Agreed. I think ST09 and STID gross can only be compared with any Trek movie from TUC/GENS onward.

In 1979-1989 the population was smaller but there was less channels on TV, no internet, no DVD, no Blu-Ray, no PPV, no piracy and movies made their money over several months rather than several weeks. I know VHS started coming in during the mid 80s but it was only in the early-mid 90s that they were in every household I think.
Well, I did say there were other factors to take into account. I absolutely loved the movie, and want it to succeed as much as anyone. Personally, I believe it'll sail into the black without any problems.
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Old May 31 2013, 01:55 PM   #1503
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

VHS came out in the mid-1970s. There was piracy then - every VHS tape (film or episode) came equipped with a warning against this practice. Movies today can earn their money over months - look at Avatar.

When I read about Hollywood today, the word I keep seeing is "safe". The corporations want a product that is safe, doesn't offend major investors, and is easily translatable for any audience member. Corporations will fund focus groups to see what they want and what they don't want. I feel there is an expectation placed on the directors, producers, and writers to respect what the focus groups and investors demand, and to make every effort to meet these demands.

One of the reasons I have been reading for the greater emphasis on international markets is that the sale of physical copies of the movies is declining, as people are increasingly relying on online streaming. This paradigm is occurring as well in the music and video game industries.

Some franchises work better than others in this new world. Comic book movies are an exceptionally good case of a successful model. Comic book movies aren't required to change their fundamental nature to work in this new world. Characters like Iron Man and Superman are the main draw to these movies. For other franchises, like Star Trek, they have to fundamentally change their nature. Focus groups see this franchise as a science heavy talky where people wear outlandish costumes and speak in meaningless gibberish. Star Trek was about characters being philosophical and exploring the human condition, using science that was credible - a criteria established by Roddenberry at the onset of the franchise, and solving issues through diplomacy and negotiation, and occasionally, with weapons. This doesn't translate well. (I think it's possible to create a film that does all three. For the film to be successful, well, I think that will require an exceptionally good director and talented screen writers.) So, what we see on the screen is what Paramount believes will be interpreted by overseas audiences favorably, and, in the process, the film alienated some of the hardcore fans. So, the franchise is struggling.

I see the situation here as this. There is a girl. Some adore this girl near and far, and will accept her flaws without questioning. They are in love with her. Others look at this girl, and think she's homely, and wonder what her adorers see in her. Admiral Buzzkill I place in the former, and I place myself in the latter. There is no middle ground.

I want and desire for people to be happy, and I think having this film be successful - to attain at least $380 million - will make Admiral Buzzill happy. So, I'm rooting for him and others like him.

(Why $380 million? http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-mone...-be-profitable. The writer describes it as a rule of thumb.)
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Old May 31 2013, 02:03 PM   #1504
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

indranee wrote: View Post
the fact remains that hardcore fans are mostly older and many of them have problems with this movie and JJ-Trek in general. And they're vociferous to boot.

That's the IMAGE. It's also easily provable via the IMDB board. It's been in the pits ever since we knew for sure that Cumberbatch plays Khan.
Yet for all practical purposes those Trek fans are sure box office dollars. No one is going to come out and claim that its "the casual fan that has driven the box office take to $160 million, if only we could reel in some of the hard core Trek fans". A lot of trek fans act like a gaggle of old women who like to b*tch about everything just for the sake of b*tching. *yawn*

indranee wrote: View Post
The problem with going after the juveniles is that unlike all those other comic book franchises, Trek does not have a superman/superbeing at its heart.
Superhero stories are also not true science fiction. While superheros appeal much more to males than females, science fiction has never been a popular genre with women and girls. And its not like comic books are popular with juveniles these days either. The comic industry is lingering on its way to a slow death. Kids these days are either exposed to superheros on TV or in the theaters, comics are a non-entity in today's youth culture.

indranee wrote: View Post
And the "Trekness" you speak of is in direct opposition to what brings those other franchises their mullah: casual and willful destruction of life and property.

That is in direct contrast to what Trek has always been and should be.
I'm sure 10 Trek fans can have 10 different interpretations of what defines "Trekness" (see the old woman comment previously). However, there has always been a great deal of destruction in the Star Trek Universe. This is a key component of much of the drama within the series. What is best for Star Trek is whatever increases its popularity and chances of survival. Movies obviously cannot have the same storylines as a series as they need to be grander in spectacle and tension to justify the investment. They also need to resolve in the equivalent of 2 - 2 1/2 episodes where a series can drag out a story arc over a season or more.
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Old May 31 2013, 02:04 PM   #1505
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

throwback wrote: View Post
VHS came out in the mid-1970s.
So did the internet. And that was something that became a part of everybody's household right away too, you're right.

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Old May 31 2013, 02:20 PM   #1506
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Someone above had wrote that VHS started coming in sometime in the mid-1980s. I responded as I did.

The first commercial VHS recorder sold in the United States happen in 1977. In 1980, Paramount released the first episodes of TOS onto VHS. The major competitor to VHS was Beta-Max. By the mid-1980s, VHS had won the battle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vhs

http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star...ries_%28VHS%29

http://mroche.umwblogs.org/history-of-the-vhs/
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Old May 31 2013, 02:24 PM   #1507
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Roald wrote: View Post
No, it's not a fair guide. In 1979, there were no crappy downloadable cam versions that legions of people watch instead of going to the cinema... There wasn't even home video, so the only way to see TMP was in the cinema (and thereafter, hoping it would air on television in about 3 to 4 years at minimum)... Today, so many people will think: 'I'll check it out when it comes out on DVD/blu ray/ whatever'. I think when you take that into account, the whole 'unadjusted gross' check of films that were released prior to the home cinema age is very flawed...
Agreed. I think ST09 and STID gross can only be compared with any Trek movie from TUC/GENS onward.

In 1979-1989 the population was smaller but there was less channels on TV, no internet, no DVD, no Blu-Ray, no PPV, no piracy and movies made their money over several months rather than several weeks. I know VHS started coming in during the mid 80s but it was only in the early-mid 90s that they were in every household I think.
If you guys think that there was literally no piracy in the 1970's and 1980's, then you don't know what you're talking about.
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Old May 31 2013, 02:46 PM   #1508
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

There was some piracy back then, but it didn't compare to the mass piracy you have now.
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Old May 31 2013, 02:58 PM   #1509
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

throwback wrote: View Post
If there were more of the Admiral Buzzkill-type fans, this film wouldn't be where it is profit-wise. Unfortunately, there are not.
There are are tens of millions more normal people who just want to be entertained than there are die-hard trekkies, so your reasoning is flawed at the start.

In fact, it's the die-hards who are - with extremely rare exception - guaranteed to see this thing more than once, and most have.

The film needs to make $380 million to be successful.


No.

The movie's a guaranteed success for Paramount, though not as successful as they'd hoped. As a consequence there will be another one in 2016. There are plenty of folks who pay to see these, a great many more than ever bothered with oldTrek.

throwback wrote: View Post
...I am rooting for all those Admiral Buzzkills that are out there...
There's only one Admiral Buzzkill, silly rabbit.
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Old May 31 2013, 03:06 PM   #1510
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

A lot of us (like me) are old enough to remember how this actually went down. Just because VCRs existed in the late 70s doesn't mean a lot of people had them. It was the same with the first wave of home computers. They were pricey and there were only a small number of early-adopters.

VCRs didn't begin to get affordable until the early 80s, like 82-84. Also, commercial tapes were sold for $79+ in the early days. That was a lot of money then. The home video market only took off when the industry finally decided to lower prices to around $30. The video rental boom soon followed. Many films were held back from home video for a long time as well. Star Wars being the most famous example.

The first tape I actually bought was Wrath of Khan, and I darn near wore it out.


throwback wrote: View Post
Someone above had wrote that VHS started coming in sometime in the mid-1980s. I responded as I did.

The first commercial VHS recorder sold in the United States happen in 1977. In 1980, Paramount released the first episodes of TOS onto VHS. The major competitor to VHS was Beta-Max. By the mid-1980s, VHS had won the battle.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vhs

http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star...ries_%28VHS%29

http://mroche.umwblogs.org/history-of-the-vhs/
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Old May 31 2013, 03:07 PM   #1511
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

mos6507 wrote: View Post
A lot of us (like me) are old enough to remember how this actually went down. Just because VCRs existed in the late 70s doesn't mean a lot of people had them. It was the same with the first wave of home computers. They were pricey and there were only a small number of early-adopters.

VCRs didn't begin to get affordable until the early 80s, like 82-84. Also, commercial tapes were sold for $79+ in the early days. That was a lot of money then. The home video market only took off when the industry finally decided to lower prices to around $30. The video rental boom soon followed. Many films were held back from home video for a long time as well. Star Wars being the most famous example.
That's fairly accurate.
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Old May 31 2013, 03:25 PM   #1512
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Jeez, I remember that. It was like a 6 year gap for E.T: The Extraterrestrial to come out on VHS... it was released in theatres in '82 and on video in 88.
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Old May 31 2013, 03:27 PM   #1513
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I'm keeping telling that I'm surprised with the good box office in Brazil with previews in IMAX. I don´t have numbers, but we had previews on May 17th, 25th, 30th and it continues grossing good, several theaters filled. I think Brazil can reach $6 million or more (Star Trek - 1.907 million in 2009) with IMAX. The premiere is in 2-D on june 14th.

The marketing here is strong with interviews (JJ, Karl Urban, Zoe speaking in portuguese and Pine and Zach) on Fantastic - Rede Globo, program with the largest audience. I think we'll have good box office, though many people like Fast and furious, and Wolverine.
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Old May 31 2013, 03:29 PM   #1514
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Every million helps!
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Old May 31 2013, 03:41 PM   #1515
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Yeah.

There was a lot of pirated stuff on video by '83, though. I remember watching crappy copies of both TWOK and E.T. at a party in the summer of that year. They were nearly unwatchable, but there was a novelty to it.
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