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Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 21 2013, 05:35 PM   #826
Flake
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Members of boxoffice.com are guessing that Star Trek will follow 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' for the rest of its run.

If that happens, Star Trek Into Darkness will finish with $190m
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Old May 21 2013, 05:38 PM   #827
BillJ
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Xaios wrote: View Post

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the hell out of IM3 when I was in the theater, but it left me hollow once I left, and didn't stick with me at all.
This is pretty much how I've felt about all the Marvel movies except for the first Iron Man and Captain America.
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Old May 21 2013, 05:52 PM   #828
The Transformed Man
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Members of boxoffice.com are guessing that Star Trek will follow 'Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides' for the rest of its run.

If that happens, Star Trek Into Darkness will finish with $190m
That's a bit of a leap. If the Moday number is accurate that would extrapolate to Trek hauling in some $27 million between Mon-Thurs giving it a total of $110 going into the four day weekend. Add another $40+ million for the four day Memorial Day weekend and Trek is at $150 minimum. The following week quite a number of schools are out so weekday numbers will probably run slightly higher. This is looking more like $225 minimum, probably just a little more. Then add international numbers and you're probably looking at a worldwide gross in the neighborhood of $450-470 million.


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Old May 21 2013, 06:04 PM   #829
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Following the legs of On Stranger Tides is plausible. A take in the low 40s for Memorial Day weekend would keep STiD on pace with Star Trek for the same number of days in release and would match the legs of Tides up to that point - Memorial Day weekend being the second weekend for both STiD and Tides, while it was the third weekend for Star Trek. STiD's third weekend is where we'll see whether it drops off Star Trek's pace and continues to track along the lines of Tides or whether it can keep up stronger legs. If it drops by 50-55% in its third weekend that'll have a ripple effect on the rest of its run and lead to a domestic gross tens of millions less than Star Trek, quite possibly ending up in the $190-210 million range. To have a shot at really strong legs that carries it to $220-230 million it'll need a really good third weekend hold.
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Old May 21 2013, 06:11 PM   #830
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Probably, should've, could've, expected... For god's sake!
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Old May 21 2013, 06:27 PM   #831
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
Following the legs of On Stranger Tides is plausible. A take in the low 40s for Memorial Day weekend would keep STiD on pace with Star Trek for the same number of days in release and would match the legs of Tides up to that point - Memorial Day weekend being the second weekend for both STiD and Tides, while it was the third weekend for Star Trek. STiD's third weekend is where we'll see whether it drops off Star Trek's pace and continues to track along the lines of Tides or whether it can keep up stronger legs. If it drops by 50-55% in its third weekend that'll have a ripple effect on the rest of its run and lead to a domestic gross tens of millions less than Star Trek, quite possibly ending up in the $190-210 million range. To have a shot at really strong legs that carries it to $220-230 million it'll need a really good third weekend hold.
Didn't see On Stranger Tides dire 3rd weekend drop! Fingers crossed Star Trek warps past $200m and does not parallel ONS. I do think the second weekend of STID will be a drop like POTC:ONS or worse because of the openers.

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Probably, should've, could've, expected... For god's sake!
Thats the nature of trying to predict the box office!
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Old May 21 2013, 06:32 PM   #832
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Didn't see On Stranger Tides dire 3rd weekend drop! Fingers crossed Star Trek warps past $200m and does not parallel ONS. I do think the second weekend of STID will be a drop like POTC:ONS or worse because of the openers.
I think, and hope, the legs will be better than that and at least get to $210 million.

Edit to add: BTC's tracking for Memorial Day weekend:

The Hangover Part III - $100m 5-day (26/20/22/19.3/12.7)

Fast & Furious 6 - $100m 4-day (32/28/23.5/16.5)

Epic - $40m 4-day (8/12/11/9)

Star Trek Into Darkness - $38.6m 3-day (which would put it in the low to mid-40s for the 4-day)

Iron Man 3 - $21.5m 3-day

The Great Gatsby - $14.4m 3-day
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Old May 21 2013, 07:11 PM   #833
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

If $38.6 3-day happens that will be a brilliant hold considering the competition.
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Old May 21 2013, 07:15 PM   #834
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

That would definitely be nice...
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Old May 21 2013, 07:16 PM   #835
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Gross for yesterday - Monday - $7,982,835.
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Old May 21 2013, 07:34 PM   #836
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I reckon Star Trek will be around $150 US Box Office by end of weekend. $230ish total target at this rate IMO though worldwide could take us over $450 mark (probably $50 million short of Paramount's hopeful target.)
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Old May 21 2013, 07:38 PM   #837
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
Following the legs of On Stranger Tides is plausible. A take in the low 40s for Memorial Day weekend would keep STiD on pace with Star Trek for the same number of days in release and would match the legs of Tides up to that point - Memorial Day weekend being the second weekend for both STiD and Tides, while it was the third weekend for Star Trek. STiD's third weekend is where we'll see whether it drops off Star Trek's pace and continues to track along the lines of Tides or whether it can keep up stronger legs. If it drops by 50-55% in its third weekend that'll have a ripple effect on the rest of its run and lead to a domestic gross tens of millions less than Star Trek, quite possibly ending up in the $190-210 million range. To have a shot at really strong legs that carries it to $220-230 million it'll need a really good third weekend hold.
Didn't see On Stranger Tides dire 3rd weekend drop! Fingers crossed Star Trek warps past $200m and does not parallel ONS. I do think the second weekend of STID will be a drop like POTC:ONS or worse because of the openers.

beamMe wrote: View Post
Probably, should've, could've, expected... For god's sake!
Thats the nature of trying to predict the box office!
Also bear in mind there's a HUGE difference between Into Darknes and Stranger Tides where they stood after their intial release. Trek scored a Cinemascore rating of A, Stranger Tides word of mouth was much weaker with a B+, and generally U.S. audiences were not very enamored with the 4th film (did great overseas). Additionally Tides was savaged by critics scoring an initial Rottentomatoes rating of 42%, Trek's on the other hand has been very stable at 86% and the film has been well received by critics.

Trying to tie the two together is a bit of a logic leap right now. Let's see how it holds up this weekend and how the intial returns are for next Tuesday and Wednesday before people start passing judgement. Those results will show what kind of legs Trek has or does not have.


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Old May 21 2013, 07:46 PM   #838
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

CinemaScores and reviews don't always match up with a film's legs. Gatsby is holding much better than its CinemaScore and reviews would indicate.

But, as I said earlier, I think STiD will have better legs than Tides. Tides is just useful for laying out the lower range of what STiD could end up with.
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Old May 21 2013, 08:00 PM   #839
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

So... are we getting a third then, or not? I guess the four day weekend numbers aren't in yet?
There may be a trickle effect... some may see it repeatedly and some couldn't see it this weekend. My wife and I got some of the last few seats Sunday night in the theatre.
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Old May 21 2013, 08:11 PM   #840
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Yes, there's going to be a third nuTrek movie.
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