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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 20 2013, 11:11 PM   #766
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

timtonruben359 wrote: View Post
I'm sick of people portraying this as some massive box office bomb. It's number 1, and took in 84M+ over the weekend which is actually where Paramount had originally projected it before they moved the IMAX opening to Wednesday.
Yeah, this is like saying Obama lost the election because he didn't win Montana.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:13 PM   #767
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Anyone else see this yet?

Only 25% of those who went to see "Into Darkness" were under 25

Meanwhile something like "Iron Man 3" has 45 percent that are under 25, making that much more family friendly.

I guess Trek still has a had time attracting the under 25 audience. But this also means that it won't be hit as hard by Fast and Furious 6 since that franchise has mostly teen and young adult fans.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:18 PM   #768
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Expectations for Gastby rose in the few weeks prior to release. Before that it was thought most likely to be a problematic release.

The Forbes writer did a good job laying out the various scenarios of the domestic legs STiD could have. Reaching $250 million domestic would require a very atypical run for a sequel. I'd love to see it happen, but it's a long shot. $220-235 million domestic is probably the best case scenario, and $190-210 million is the range most box office analysts would bet on at this point. There's still a broad range possible for the worldwide gross, though, depending on how the foreign numbers continue to shape up and on the domestic legs.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:23 PM   #769
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

So we're still at "it could go very good, could go very bad or somewhere in-between".
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Old May 20 2013, 11:27 PM   #770
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Iron Man 3
The Hangover 3
Fast and Furious 6
Star Trek

Ask at random 1000 under-25s which movie they would see if they could only see one and I would imagine Star Trek finishes a distant 4th. The solution? move Trek to a quieter time of the year and then it is the only movie worth watching.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:28 PM   #771
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
Expectations for Gastby rose in the few weeks prior to release. Before that it was thought most likely to be a problematic release.

The Forbes writer did a good job laying out the various scenarios of the domestic legs STiD could have. Reaching $250 million domestic would require a very atypical run for a sequel. I'd love to see it happen, but it's a long shot. $220-235 million domestic is probably the best case scenario, and $190-210 million is the range most box office analysts would bet on at this point. There's still a broad range possible for the worldwide gross, though, depending on how the foreign numbers continue to shape up and on the domestic legs.
I am drawn to the 190-210m range when I think about it. Next weekend could well be the biggest weekend in box office history and Trek is right in the middle of it. Strange move by Paramount.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:30 PM   #772
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

BillJ wrote: View Post
So we're still at "it could go very good, could go very bad or somewhere in-between".
Kinda, although "very bad" is unlikely. Paramount clearly would have liked the kind of opening where any uncertainty was taken off the table right from the get go and a triumphant gross was assured.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:34 PM   #773
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

King Daniel wrote: View Post
^Sadly, for some unknown reason, there aren't and won't be any novels set in the Abramsverse. Four were written and set for a summer 2010 release, but never made it to the shelves. Info and synopsis here: http://trekmovie.com/2010/01/10/summ...g-this-summer/
OK, don't have the Pocket Books only the Starfleet Academy books (just 2: "The Delta Anomaly" and "The Edge").
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Old May 20 2013, 11:40 PM   #774
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
I am drawn to the 190-210m range when I think about it. Next weekend could well be the biggest weekend in box office history and Trek is right in the middle of it. Strange move by Paramount.
If Fast 6 is huge enough, that could mean there are tons of sellouts and people decide to go see STID instead. Being second choice would be a good thing. Those people that see STID be considered "spillover" from people who couldn't get into Fast 6.

This happened with "Twilight: New Moon and "The Blind Side", and both movies ended up doing good.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:41 PM   #775
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Iron Man 3
The Hangover 3
Fast and Furious 6
Star Trek

Ask at random 1000 under-25s which movie they would see if they could only see one and I would imagine Star Trek finishes a distant 4th. The solution? move Trek to a quieter time of the year and then it is the only movie worth watching.
Yup.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:44 PM   #776
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I didn't even realise Fast and Furious was that big ! Obviously they wouldn't make 6 with no audience, but I don't think I know anyone who has seen one of them...
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Old May 20 2013, 11:44 PM   #777
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Dream wrote: View Post
Flake wrote: View Post
I am drawn to the 190-210m range when I think about it. Next weekend could well be the biggest weekend in box office history and Trek is right in the middle of it. Strange move by Paramount.
If Fast 6 is huge enough, that could mean there are tons of sellouts and people decide to go see STID instead. Being second choice would be a good thing. Those people that see STID be considered "spillover" from people who couldn't get into Fast 6.

This happened with "Twilight: New Moon and "The Blind Side", and both movies ended up doing good.
Generally most "tentpole" movies do well over Memorial Day weekend. There's plenty of room for Trek to make $40+ over the four day weekend. This could be a crazy weekend with 5 movies making over $20 million.

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Old May 20 2013, 11:44 PM   #778
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Iron Man 3
The Hangover 3
Fast and Furious 6
Star Trek

Ask at random 1000 under-25s which movie they would see if they could only see one and I would imagine Star Trek finishes a distant 4th. The solution? move Trek to a quieter time of the year and then it is the only movie worth watching.
Unfortunately, this seems to be the case. I'm 28, and I can say more of my friends are more into seeing Iron Man 3, Fast cars 6, and we got really drunk for a third time.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but June and July seem to be quieter months this year overall. The only other huge film seems to be Man of Steel in June.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:47 PM   #779
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Fast Five (2011) grossed less than Star Trek domestically ($209.8 million), but far more worldwide ($626.1m). That was a big improvement over Fast and Furious (2009), which grossed $155 million domestic and $363.1 million worldwide.
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Old May 20 2013, 11:52 PM   #780
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
Fast Five grossed less than Star Trek domestically ($209.8 million), but far more worldwide ($626.1m).
Fast Six is going to be huge. Fast Five was really well liked by both fans and critics, and all the action looks insane. These movies are the very definition of brainless entertainment, and they don't try to be anything more than that.

I don't see Hangover 3 as a threat at all. The second movie was hated by many people, and besides there absolutely zero cross over appear between Hangover and Trek fans.
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