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Go Back   The Trek BBS > Star Trek Movies > Star Trek Movies XI+

Star Trek Movies XI+ Discuss J.J. Abrams' rebooted Star Trek here.

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Old May 18 2013, 07:33 PM   #346
Phily B
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Probably, but usually two weeks after IM3 is enough. Saying that, Fast 6 and Hangover 3 are going to be pretty big but I'm not sure that's an excuse. There will be a lot of head scratching going on over at Paramount, especially if overseas sees a 200m+ gross.
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Old May 18 2013, 07:39 PM   #347
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Phily B wrote: View Post
If it doubles its budget with a good OS % a third will be greenlit, the problem is that no one can work out why this film is doing bad. There are guesses, but its confused everyone - some movies just do this.
Yep. The underperformance of Kung Fu Panda 2 was a similar headscratcher.
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Old May 18 2013, 07:39 PM   #348
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Only time will tell,

Box Office Mojo is now reporting Into Darkness at US$35.5m

Sure other films are opening, but will they open big, and how much drop off will there be,

For example

Fast and Furious (2009)

Opening US$89.3m
Week 1 US$35.2m
Week 2 US$14.7m
Week 3 US$7.5m
Week 4 US$3.5m

Star Trek (2009)

Adv Previous US$4m
Open US$100.6m
Week 1 US$57.0m
Week 2 US$35.1m
Week 3 US$17.7m
Week 4 US$12.0m

So it would appear that ST (2009) didn't suffer the same rate of dropoff as F&F (2009) did. However previous history is not an indication of the future as the releases were more apart.

But of course Man of Steel looms on the horizon.
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Old May 18 2013, 07:41 PM   #349
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Star Trek operated more like an original in its box office pattern, while Fast & Furious operated like a typical sequel.
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Old May 18 2013, 07:44 PM   #350
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Maybe STID won't operate like a typical sequel, and will go along the lines of 09 though I doubt it. The reason people are "panicing" is because of the assumption it will operate like a sequel and unlike 09 see a massive drop, especially with Fast 6 next week and HO.

STID is being really weird from what I can gather, you have people predicting upwards of 30m then others saying 20m. No one can figure it out?!
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Old May 18 2013, 07:54 PM   #351
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

This is like Election night. The talking heads throw out all kinds of numbers, everyone's confused and eventually the outcome becomes clearer. No one really knows until the final numbers are in.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:01 PM   #352
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Star Trek 09 had novelty of being a reboot on its side, Into Darkness may just feel like 'yet another Trek film' to the masses, especially after a 4 year wait.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:03 PM   #353
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Kpnuts wrote: View Post
Star Trek 09 had novelty of being a reboot on its side, Into Darkness may just feel like 'yet another Trek film' to the masses, especially after a 4 year wait.
4 years was a long wait no doubt but if Trek came out last year "The Avengers" would of swallowed it up and spat it out even more than Iron Man 3 seemingly has. Paramount need to look at a possible chrsitmas slot in 2016 if its less heavy than Summer 2016.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:06 PM   #354
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Kpnuts wrote: View Post
Star Trek 09 had novelty of being a reboot on its side, Into Darkness may just feel like 'yet another Trek film' to the masses, especially after a 4 year wait.
I don't think we need to worry about them shelving the franchise again, they'll just go back to the drawing board RE:marketing. They might've relied too much on 2009 being fresh, when it was four years ago - plenty of movies have come and gone since then. Overseas looks like it'll improve, and with the 50th anniversary coming up there should be a sequel no problem. As long as overseas does improve and the projections aren't wrong, then it should limp across 400m+.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:19 PM   #355
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Phily B wrote: View Post
As long as overseas does improve and the projections aren't wrong, then it should limp across 400m+.
Damn, that really is very, very disappointing.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:21 PM   #356
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

LOKAI of CHERON wrote: View Post
Phily B wrote: View Post
As long as overseas does improve and the projections aren't wrong, then it should limp across 400m+.
Damn, that really is very, very disappointing.
I knew when I liked it, the box office would immediately go in the toilet.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:23 PM   #357
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

I guess I'm finding it hard to understand how a Trek film that (potentially) does $400mil is disappointing. Especially since it cost $180mil to make.

It is a bit depressing how the numbers don't seem to be adding up at this stage but Trek 09 was a very unexpected success, it did far better than Paramount or any of us were expecting. I think the freshness and novelty had a big part to play, sequels may do well but this film could be seen as Trek 12 by the masses. If it gets around the same as Trek 09 I don't think it should be considered a failure, regardless of inflation/3D etc
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Old May 18 2013, 08:25 PM   #358
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Kpnuts wrote: View Post
I guess I'm finding it hard to understand how a Trek film that does $400mil+ is disappointing. Especially since it cost $180mil to make.
You factor in a $100 million dollar advertising campaign and the theater share and it may not even break even at $400 million.
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Old May 18 2013, 08:34 PM   #359
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

BillJ wrote: View Post
Kpnuts wrote: View Post
I guess I'm finding it hard to understand how a Trek film that does $400mil+ is disappointing. Especially since it cost $180mil to make.
You factor in a $100 million dollar advertising campaign and the theater share and it may not even break even at $400 million.
When talking about a 'what a film has cost', advertising campaigns are not factored in, just like dvd/bluray sales are not factored in the film's 'total gross'... I am right about that..
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Old May 18 2013, 08:38 PM   #360
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Roald wrote: View Post
BillJ wrote: View Post
Kpnuts wrote: View Post
I guess I'm finding it hard to understand how a Trek film that does $400mil+ is disappointing. Especially since it cost $180mil to make.
You factor in a $100 million dollar advertising campaign and the theater share and it may not even break even at $400 million.
When talking about a 'what a film has cost', advertising campaigns are not factored in, just like dvd/bluray sales are not factored in the film's 'total gross'... I am right about that..
I can't see how you can "factor out" marketing costs? Where would you divert that investment in the accounts? Unless Paramomt have an overall annual marketing budget for all releases, which could be accounted for separately.
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