MLB Offseason 2012

[Mr. Laser Beam]

^ What about Jeter breaking Pete Rose's hits record?

[Timby]

900 hits away at age 38 and now with an ankle injury? I don't see it happening. Jeter doesn't have the luxury of being the manager and putting himself in the lineup when he clearly has no business being there.

[Kirby]

Todd Helton busted at 2am this morning drunk driving after multiple drivers called him in for erratic driving. Not a good way to kick off what is likely your final season Todd.

[Timby]

Holy moly, King Felix just got paid. What an absolutely terrible deal by the Mariners. Jack Z just went full Rube; this has the very strong potential to be Ryan Howard redux.

[Use of Time]

No help coming for Felix either unless some middle of the road prospect in the farm system channels his inner "Mike Trout." Seven year deal might as well be a reservation in the AL West cellar. The Astros could give them some strong competition in that regard though.

[Timby]

The Mariners' system is decent -- decidedly not good, but it isn't awful. They could be a good team if they spent their money wisely, but the problem is they don't, and Jack Z is a moron. They would have had Hamilton if they had gone to five years on him, but they stuck at four even though they knew that would lose them the deal. They never bothered going in on Swisher because they were terrified of losing the draft pick.

I get why Jack Z made the Felix deal, because he's desperately trying to save his job, but it's a terrible decision. The Mariners had two years of control left on Felix, and there is a non-zero possibility that he suffers a career-altering injury at some point between now and 2015.

[Aragorn]

Timby wrote:

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The Mariners' system is decent -- decidedly not good, but it isn't awful. They could be a good team if they spent their money wisely, but the problem is they don't, and Jack Z is a moron. They would have had Hamilton if they had gone to five years on him, but they stuck at four even though they knew that would lose them the deal. They never bothered going in on Swisher because they were terrified of losing the draft pick.

Hamilton says the Mariners never pushed hard on him, the Mariners say they did. However, I suspect Hamilton never considered them to be an option. If I was a big name superstar, why would I want to go to the Mariners unless it's for an absurd amount of money no other team would pay (like what Gil Meche -- not a superstar -- got to go to the Royals).

[Aragorn]

Michael Bourn takes the money and runs -- 4 years, $48 million with the Indians -- where he'll toil on a losing team for 3.5 seasons and then get traded to a contender in July of his final year.

[Timby]

Aragorn wrote:

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Michael Bourn takes the money and runs -- 4 years, $48 million with the Indians -- where he'll toil on a losing team for 3.5 seasons and then get traded to a contender in July of his final year.

If anything, this is the case study which shows how second-tier, good-not-great free agents are the big losers under the new CBA. If a team is signing a Hamilton or a Greinke, they're trying to win now, and they're also rich as fuck, so who cares about draft picks? But so many more teams should have been in on Bourn and Swisher, and they got way less than expected. And a guy like Angel Pagan, who's a tier below Bourn, got nearly the same contract.

Every writer in the country is saying that the Mets had a four-year deal out on Bourn (and presumably a better one), and got screwed when the league office came back today with the 2-3 week time frame for a decision regarding the 11th overall draft pick. The Mets weren't willing to guarantee a deal no matter the resolution of the case, so Bourn took the second best deal because it might not have been on the table in March.

Usually there's supposed to be some benefit to your owner being an in the pocket crony of the commissioner.

That being said, I'm of the opinion the Mets should have just gone ahead and guaranteed the offer, no matter what the league decided regarding the draft pick, considering how much of a crapshoot the draft is. Sign the deal unconditionally, appeal the loss of the pick, and even if you don't win the appeal, you've got four years of a decent player with a reputation far above his actual value signed well below market value, which makes him a piece that you could almost certainly spin off for 11th-overall quality prospects as early as this year's trade deadline, if things go south on a macro level (which, the Mets being the Mets and the NL East being what it is, especially with the Braves now having the Up Up and a Hey outfield, is a non-zero possibility).

Then you try to sign a short-term deal with Lohse for the same reasons.

[Use of Time]

Yeah, but in my opinion Bourn was lucky to get even that deal. He was expensive and there were cheaper substitutes that could provide the same service which were obvsioulsy taken first i.e. Revere in Philly and Span in Washington.

[Timby]

Use of Time wrote:

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Yeah, but in my opinion Bourn was lucky to get even that deal. He was expensive and there were cheaper substitutes that could provide the same service which were obvsioulsy taken first i.e. Revere in Philly and Span in Washington.

With a career OPS+ below 100, Bourn was absolutely pricing himself outside of his market when he opened the offseason looking for a contract north of $100 million. This new deal, however, is probably pretty decent value, and at that price, there are at least ten other teams that should have been in on him. I'll give you Span, but Revere? He has one skill, which is "run really fast." Beyond that, he has no value to any team; that trade was hilariously lopsided and a classic example of "Rube gonna Rube."

[Use of Time]

Timby wrote:

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With a career OPS+ below 100, Bourn was absolutely pricing himself outside of his market when he opened the offseason looking for a contract north of $100 million. This new deal, however, is probably pretty decent value, and at that price, there are at least ten other teams that should have been in on him. I'll give you Span, but Revere? He has one skill, which is "run really fast." Beyond that, he has no value to any team; that trade was hilariously lopsided and a classic example of "Rube gonna Rube."

Actually, Revere's stats are comparable to Bourn's. He hit about 20 points higher than Bourn. They both stole bases in the 40's. Bourn has a somewhat higher OPS and tended to walk more than Revere. The only really significant difference is power which I don't think is a real selling point on any of these individuals.

I'll give you that it was a bad deal for Philly but my point is that Bourn's asking price caused other teams to blow him off while settling for a marginal downgrade in talent. Bourn would obviously have rather gone to Philly or Washington seeing as how they are contenders. Now he wastes away in Cleveland.

[Timby]

Use of Time wrote:

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Actually, Revere's stats are comparable to Bourn's. He hit about 20 points higher than Bourn. They both stole bases in the 40's. Bourn has a somewhat higher OPS and tended to walk more than Revere. The only really significant difference is power which I don't think is a real selling point on any of these individuals.

I'll give you that it was a bad deal for Philly but my point is that Bourn's asking price caused other teams to blow him off while settling for a marginal downgrade in talent. Bourn would obviously have rather gone to Philly or Washington seeing as how they are contenders. Now he wastes away in Cleveland.

Cleveland actually now has a fairly decent shot at the AL Central, given how well their lineup matches up against the White Sox and Tigers. Their big question mark is the rotation.

First off, it's worth noting that there were two things that directly contributed to Bourn lingering on the market this long: First, he priced himself well above his value. Second, the new CBA with its absurd draft pick rules regarding free agents spooked a lot of teams away from him.

Regarding Bourn vs. Revere ... well, Revere's career OPS+ of 79 to Bourn's career 90 speaks for itself. Bourn is not an elite player, but he isn't allergic to walks, he actually has the ability to hit for extra bases and he isn't the absolute disaster on defense that Revere is. Bourn is still below replacement-level, but he isn't a complete joke, unlike a certain Ben Daniel Revere, who is basically Juan Pierre without the power and the defensive instincts.

In other news, congratulations to the Mariners for managing to make a terrible deal somehow even worse by having Felix Hernandez flunk his physical yet still giving him all the money originally agreed to. Jesus Christ, what is wrong with you, Jack Z?

[Starbreaker]

The public backlash kept the Braves from using the screaming Indian at batting practice.

Link

[Use of Time]

I'm a Braves fan but I'd be fine if I never had to see that laughing Indian logo ever again. Just stick with the tomahawk and don't push your luck.