Apophis - Could Stirke Earth in 2036

[Gary7]

Hopefully by the time it reaches us, we'll have an idea of its trajectory and if it'll be making a return visit at a much closer distance. If so perhaps we'll be able to do something about it. Imagine if we could get the cooperation of Russia and take a massive percentage of our combined nuclear stockpiles, and deliver them to the asteroid. Then when its at a presumably "safe" distance away we can transmit a signal to detonate and turn it into billions of small rock fragments.

[JarodRussell]

Gary7 wrote:

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Hopefully by the time it reaches us, we'll have an idea of its trajectory and if it'll be making a return visit at a much closer distance. If so perhaps we'll be able to do something about it. Imagine if we could get the cooperation of Russia and take a massive percentage of our combined nuclear stockpiles, and deliver them to the asteroid. Then when its at a presumably "safe" distance away we can transmit a signal to detonate and turn it into billions of small rock fragments.

Dude, that won't be neccessary.

Besides that, turning it into smaller rocks blasting in every direction would make it more dangerous. Good job.

[Crazy Eddie]

JarodRussell wrote:

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Besides that, turning it into smaller rocks blasting in every direction would make it more dangerous. Good job.

No it wouldn't. The shower of smaller fragments would have considerably greater surface area, allowing for both more complete burnup in the atmosphere (less mass reaches the ground) and lower impact velocity for those fragments that DO reach the ground. It would be slightly more dangerous to orbiting spacecraft and satellites, but considerably less so for anyone on the ground.

[JarodRussell]

newtype_alpha wrote:

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No it wouldn't. The shower of smaller fragments would have considerably greater surface area, allowing for both more complete burnup in the atmosphere (less mass reaches the ground) and lower impact velocity for those fragments that DO reach the ground. It would be slightly more dangerous to orbiting spacecraft and satellites, but considerably less so for anyone on the ground.

You're turning an asteroid that definitely won't hit Earth into a gazillion of smaller ones that will hit Earth.

[Robert Maxwell]

JarodRussell wrote:

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You're turning an asteroid that definitely won't hit Earth into a gazillion of smaller ones that will hit Earth.

If you make them small enough, most of them will burn up and hit nothing.

In any case, if you have an asteroid big enough to cause an extinction-level event, you are better off doing anything you can to blunt the impact, which leaves two options:

1. Change its course so it doesn't hit Earth at all (this would be difficult to impossible, depending on the situation)
2. Blow it up into as many small pieces as you can

Option 2 means that, yes, some populated areas will probably be hit, and people will die, but if the choice is that or the extinction of most life on Earth, is that even a choice?

[Crazy Eddie]

JarodRussell wrote:

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You're turning an asteroid that definitely won't hit Earth into a gazillion of smaller ones that will hit Earth.

IF it's confirmed that it will hit Earth, blowing it up is a viable solution.

If it's not going to hit Earth, blowing it up is neither a hazard nor a solution but is just a waste of time; the debris field will not scatter far enough or fast enough to hit Earth anyway and would only be a hazard to spacecraft and probes in high orbit.

[publiusr]

There has been an update
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ap...dated_999.html

"...the possibility of a potential impact in the years after 2029 continues to prove difficult to rule out..."
http://arxiv.org/abs/1301.1607

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ap..._2068_999.html

"The new report, which does not make use of the 2013 radar measurements, identifies over a dozen keyholes that fall within the range of possible 2029 encounter distances," reads an article prepared by a group of scientists led by Davide Farnocchia.

Still unlikely.

[_C_]

Those damn Go'auld just don't give up do they? We better hurry up and Ascend!

[JarodRussell]

_C_ wrote:

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Those damn Go'auld just don't give up do they? We better hurry up and Ascend!

If you immediately know the candle light is fire, then the meal was cooked long ago.

[publiusr]

It gets even more interesting--on the subjects of impacts.

Here is one for Ripley


"Having reconstructed the Tunguska event with due attention to all the evidence, we have to conclude that it could not have been an asteroid or a comet core. There seems to exist in space another type of dangerous space objects, whose nature still remains unknown...".

http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.6273
http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthre...lternate-Model

A little skeptical though:

Odd neighbor?
http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthre...in-orbit/page5

[JarodRussell]

Everyone knows that Tunguska was an experiment conducted by the Templars using one of the Pieces of Eden.

[ThunderAeroI]

publiusr wrote:

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It gets even more interesting--on the subjects of impacts.

Here is one for Ripley


"Having reconstructed the Tunguska event with due attention to all the evidence, we have to conclude that it could not have been an asteroid or a comet core. There seems to exist in space another type of dangerous space objects, whose nature still remains unknown...".

http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.6273
http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthre...lternate-Model

A little skeptical though:

Odd neighbor?
http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthre...in-orbit/page5

I recall a special on the Discovery channel that made it very clear it was a Tesla coil that did it. There are many stories on the internet about it. Here is a random one. My guess is something very odd happened there and whatever it was. The Discovery special made it also clear that Mr. Morgan was responsible for terminating the telsa program once he found out Telsa wanted to give away free energy to the world. The part responsible for the event was the experiment to teleport energy from one location to another, sort of like the Philadelphia experiment.

[publiusr]

I think there are a hundred different theories on Tunguska.

It's the Teton event and that long 1,500km trajectory in the atmosphere that stuns me.

In no part of the super-8 footage does it look to break apart. Every other body I've seen move that hot and that fast has. Add to that the resonant return it was supposed to make, and it makes me think of a von Neumann probe doing a Leonov type aerobrake a la 2010.

[Crazy Eddie]

publiusr wrote:

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In no part of the super-8 footage does it look to break apart. Every other body I've seen move that hot and that fast has. Add to that the resonant return it was supposed to make, and it makes me think of a von Neumann probe doing a Leonov type aerobrake a la 2010.

That or a really big asteroid that entered the atmosphere at high speed, skipped back out of the atmosphere without burning up and was never seen again.

[Sephiroth]

Tesla did Tunguska with his amazing coil