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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old December 27 2012, 03:07 PM   #16
Robert Maxwell
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Re: Nanotechnology... $2 trillion business by 2014

RAMA wrote: View Post
Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
In order to say nanotech will be a multi-trillion dollar industry in the near future, you require a definition of "nanotechnology" so broad as to be meaningless. The only reasons to push such an angle are to either attract investment dollars or push some other agenda, but clearly definitional precision is not a priority in either case.

Bringing nanotech materials development into the open, and with the likely success of carbon nanotubes, solar panel materials between now and the predicted 6th processing paradigm before 2020, the explosion of the industry even now means investment dollars for future nanotech, which will include rapid exponential development of assemblers and what people "normally" think of with nanotech. So we can't underestimate the importance of these reports.

The last market report i listed lists a definition and companies for nanotech.
The bolded part is a complete leap in logic and it totally falls apart.

Development of one kind of nano-scale technology does not imply we'll move right along to assemblers, self-replicating machines, atom-by-atom construction, etc. etc. This is a falsity implied by designating every industrial process performed at the nano scale as "nanotechnology," as if they are all equal and equally viable.

I'm sure there will be investment in the more "traditional" conceptions of nanotech, however there is no guarantee that they will succeed and result in practical products. It would be nice if they did, but that's the nature of technological progress: there are always a lot of dead ends before you hit on something that really works, and it isn't always what people predict it will be.
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Old December 27 2012, 11:04 PM   #17
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Re: Nanotechnology... $2 trillion business by 2014

RAMA wrote: View Post
The investment page WAS and advertisement, I never said otherwise...
An advertisement is NOT an investment page; they are two different things.

however it collected info for the industry onto one page in promotion of it...
And the fact that it collected positive-sounding information totally out of context and without citation or other factual support is the difference between commercial advertising and actual investment information.

Yes, as I said, the total value of products is higher than the revenue, but the point is revenue is very high, and according to actual market research
But nowhere near a trillion dollars, not now nor in the near future, especially under any reasonable definition of "nanotechnology."

The $15-20 billion figure is conservative and does not include total value of all nano products
To be sure, it doesn't include the SPECULATIVE value of nano products that do not yet exist. Genuine market research doesn't attach value to things that haven't even been invented yet. You take that sort of case to a real investor and the first question he's going to ask is "Which of those nano products do you expect to be able to produce in the near future and how much do you plan to sell them to, and to whom, and in what quantity?" None of your market research even approaches that question; it's vague potentialities, which really just amounts to more hype.

FYI, technology research, like advertising, is NOT market research.

The significant drop in prices of a broad gamut of nanotechnology based products and materials such as nanoclays and silver-based nano-additives among others will especially help broaden their applications in wide spectrum of industries, thus boosting the market.
And what exactly are the revenues for manufacturers of THOSE products?
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Old January 18 2013, 08:22 AM   #18
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Re: Nanotechnology... $2 trillion business by 2014

The drone business is going to grow much faster, IMHO. Especially if battery technology makes some significant milestones in the coming years. Electric quadcopter drones that can fly for 300 miles before needing fresh battery packs. You can bet police forces in every state in every nation is going to be buying these things. Meanwhile, gas powered drone use is ballooning even still (although you need a runway somewhere conveniently nearby to take off and land).
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Old January 27 2013, 10:49 PM   #19
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Re: Nanotechnology... $2 trillion business by 2014

I want to see these things fly into tornadoes.
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