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Old December 23 2012, 01:38 PM   #361
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

HoHoHocutus wrote: View Post
gturner wrote: View Post
HoHoHoCutus wrote:
It's not my job to try and prove your point for you. You made a claim (that guns were completely banned in Russia), and I refuted it.
No, you didn't. I said they were banned about 90 years ago, and you refuted it with their current law. If I said the US banned alcohol 90 years ago, would you refute it by pointing to a modern beer commercial and say "See, no they didn't."
That is indeed when you said it began, but you also said that the ban lasted to the PRESENT DAY, and used it as an argument against banning guns in the PRESENT DAY because that allegedly leads to higher murder rates. Trying to limit it to a temporary measure undertaken in the days of Lenin and Stalin was just the way you moved the goalposts after I showed that your total gun ban in Russia today claim was bullshit. It's like you're completely unaware of the existence of a search function and think your lies will continue to go unnoticed.
A "temporary measure" that lasted, oh, about 70 years, until they collapsed. And the important weapons they banned, the pistols which are used in the vast majority of all gun murders, stayed completely banned, along with a five year waiting period to buy a rifle, of which only about 220,000 have entered circulation. That is about one gun of a type rarely used in gun homicides for every 600 people. Pretty much all of Western Europe has more rifles than that. England and Wales still have more licensed rifles in civilian hands than that, about twice as many, and that number has gone up about 50 percent since 2000.

So if Engand and Wales totally ban civilian gun ownership, as is often implied in this thread, yet they let five times as many people per capita have a rifle as Russia, indicating that Russia has a fifth the UK's rate of gun ownership, why would you be insisting that Russia has guns, and thus its high murder rate is a symptom of guns, while totally ignoring England's far more numerous guns?

By the way, also take note of the fluctuating murder rate between Russia and the US from one quote to the next. Sometimes it's twice as high, sometimes it's four times as high. You can't even keep your numbers straight from one post to the next. It's almost as if you're just making stuff up as you go along.
No, their murder rate doubled and fell back recently, not in sync with our own shifts. Which year do you want to use?
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Old December 23 2012, 01:42 PM   #362
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

If this sounds pedantic and petty I'm sorry, but not only do I not give much if any weight to gturner's half baked statistics, but the following are NOT "countries":

Martinique, Greenland, French Guiana, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Montserrat, Guadeloupe, the Cayman Islands, Anguilla, the British Virgin Islands.

All of these are overseas colonial or constitutionally incorporated territories of either the United States or a European nation. They are not independent countries. This might just be the observations of an obsessive-compulsive geography nerd and nitpicker who's grown increasingly weary of gturner's repeated attempts to downplay and minimize American gun violence and murder rate, but a country or nation is a sovereign political unit and not a dependent territory of a stronger overseas power that controls most or all of its affairs.

You can call Montserrat many things that are wonderful and descriptive, but "country" isn't one of them.

What else you got?
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Old December 23 2012, 01:49 PM   #363
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

SantaEddie74 wrote: View Post
You can call Montserrat many things that are wonderful and descriptive, but "country" isn't one of them.

What else you got?
How much would you want to bet that the European possessors of those islands do NOT include the islands' homicides in the home county's murder statistics?

They need to count somewhere, which is probably why they're listed seperately, along with other countries.
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Old December 23 2012, 02:02 PM   #364
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

Rincewiend wrote: View Post

It's that idiotic One Drop rule, isn't it...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-drop_rule
No, but perhaps there's a corresponding one word rule.

"You said 'burrito'."
"So? It's a common English word."
"It's a Spanish word. That makes you hispanic."
"No it doesn't."
"Yes it does."
"But I'm Spanish, so I can't be hispanic."
"Oh."

I've read that in the EU, or at least in US dealings with the EU, a person who immigrates to Europe from Mexico or Central or South America is "hispanic", but a Spaniard is not, because they are Europeans. It just gets more confusing from there, as you get into Spaniards who've lived in Mexico for generations, who switch from being Spaniards to being Hispanics by moving to Spain, where they might instead be classified as Americans by everyone but Americans. Who knows?
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Old December 23 2012, 02:03 PM   #365
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

gturner wrote: View Post
The UK numbers have almost nothing to do with guns (they didn't have much of a homicide problem even before they cracked down on guns, and used to have a fanastically high murder rate with knives when King James was on the throne), but they did see a rise when UK teens got into US gang style coolness. Tiny changes in young male behavior completely dominate murder rates, because that demographic in the US is 20 to 300 homicides per 100,000, rates you can hit without any guns at all if teens decide that knife fighting is cool and manly, as Italians did up through the early 20th century.
MEN.

Overwhelmingly the problem. What's the gender divide on murders?
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Old December 23 2012, 02:07 PM   #366
Locutus of Bored
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

gturner wrote: View Post
A "temporary measure" that lasted, oh, about 70 years, until they collapsed. And the important weapons they banned, the pistols which are used in the vast majority of all gun murders, stayed completely banned, along with a five year waiting period to buy a rifle, of which only about 220,000 have entered circulation. That is about one gun of a type rarely used in gun homicides for every 600 people. Pretty much all of Western Europe has more rifles than that. England and Wales still have more licensed rifles in civilian hands than that, about twice as many, and that number has gone up about 50 percent since 2000.

So if Engand and Wales totally ban civilian gun ownership, as is often implied in this thread, yet they let five times as many people per capita have a rifle as Russia, indicating that Russia has a fifth the UK's rate of gun ownership, why would you be insisting that Russia has guns, and thus its high murder rate is a symptom of guns, while totally ignoring England's far more numerous guns?
I'm not arguing anything else at the moment except that you got the facts wrong about Russia (one of a multitude of things you've gotten wrong in this thread and a tradition of wrongness you've carried on from other threads). Why are you incapable of just admitting you were wrong about there being a complete gun ban in present day Russia? You're calling people fools and five-year-old girls, yet you aren't even "man enough" to admit to making a mistake. I'll even give you the benefit of the doubt and call it an honest mistake rather than deliberate obfuscation.
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Old December 23 2012, 02:10 PM   #367
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

gturner wrote: View Post
And there's an interesting 1967 study that set out to determine if blacks in Chicago would switch more to knives if the city banned guns, and whether their homicide rate would go up or down. They figured it would probably go down, but weren't sure. The murder rate their remains extremely high despite the ban they enacted.
Here's the reason.

ALL THEY HAD TO DO IS LEAVE THE CITY OF CHICAGO TO BUY A GUN.

Likewise, when you ponder as to why Washington, DC's murder rate has always been so high...

ALL THEY HAD TO DO WAS LEAVE THE CITY OF WASHINGTON TO BUY A GUN.

And so forth and so on. You seem to think that Chicago and Washington and really every other example you throw at us is a city surrounded by a vast no-man's land where no human or creature can exist. Sadly for you, this isn't the case.
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Old December 23 2012, 02:11 PM   #368
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

teacake wrote: View Post
gturner wrote: View Post
The UK numbers have almost nothing to do with guns (they didn't have much of a homicide problem even before they cracked down on guns, and used to have a fanastically high murder rate with knives when King James was on the throne), but they did see a rise when UK teens got into US gang style coolness. Tiny changes in young male behavior completely dominate murder rates, because that demographic in the US is 20 to 300 homicides per 100,000, rates you can hit without any guns at all if teens decide that knife fighting is cool and manly, as Italians did up through the early 20th century.
MEN.

Overwhelmingly the problem. What's the gender divide on murders?
Women don't shoot, they poison.
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Old December 23 2012, 02:18 PM   #369
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

All residents of the District of Columbia have to do to purchase guns with far greater ease is simply cross the Potomac River into Virginia. We've long been one of the most liberal states in America when it comes to the freedom to purchase, own and carry weapons and all somebody from Washington needs to do to quench his or her thirst for firearms is hop in their car and make a quick trip to the Old Dominion where the pickings are plentiful.

Along the lines of what Squiggy said, D.C. isn't isolated in the middle of nowhere with a colossal moat full of genetically engineered super crocs and heavily armed Mad Max wasteland survivalists patrolling the territory on the opposite side.
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Old December 23 2012, 02:32 PM   #370
teacake
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

JarodRussell wrote: View Post
teacake wrote: View Post
gturner wrote: View Post
The UK numbers have almost nothing to do with guns (they didn't have much of a homicide problem even before they cracked down on guns, and used to have a fanastically high murder rate with knives when King James was on the throne), but they did see a rise when UK teens got into US gang style coolness. Tiny changes in young male behavior completely dominate murder rates, because that demographic in the US is 20 to 300 homicides per 100,000, rates you can hit without any guns at all if teens decide that knife fighting is cool and manly, as Italians did up through the early 20th century.
MEN.

Overwhelmingly the problem. What's the gender divide on murders?
Women don't shoot, they poison.
I said murder, not shoot
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Old December 23 2012, 03:16 PM   #371
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

Festivus Toad wrote: View Post
gturner wrote: View Post
And there's an interesting 1967 study that set out to determine if blacks in Chicago would switch more to knives if the city banned guns, and whether their homicide rate would go up or down. They figured it would probably go down, but weren't sure. The murder rate their remains extremely high despite the ban they enacted.
Here's the reason.

ALL THEY HAD TO DO IS LEAVE THE CITY OF CHICAGO TO BUY A GUN.

Likewise, when you ponder as to why Washington, DC's murder rate has always been so high...

ALL THEY HAD TO DO WAS LEAVE THE CITY OF WASHINGTON TO BUY A GUN.

And so forth and so on. You seem to think that Chicago and Washington and really every other example you throw at us is a city surrounded by a vast no-man's land where no human or creature can exist. Sadly for you, this isn't the case.
And all that killing is done to contol cocaine and heroin grown and imported illegally from... Wisconsin? No. That's not it. Maryland? No, that's not it either. The answer will come to me.

But anyway, before Chicago or DC banned guns, nobody even had to leave the city to by one. Back in 66 or 67 they only used guns in 52 percent of murders, yet could buy them locally, while now they use guns in 83 percent of murders.

People in Montana, Wyoming, and other high gun states don't use guns nearly that often in their murders. They tend to go for knives, even though they all apparently carry guns. Strange, no?

Here's one of the studies from the 1960's. http://www.saf.org/LawReviews/ZimringReduceKillings.htm

Here's two showing how far Chicago has come in analyzing their shootings.

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Ma...Up-What-Gives/

Year to year accuracy rates, labeled "Marksmanship and effort", single shot kill probabilities, caliber ratings, etc. Everything but style points.

And a recent city report, vastly more detailed and sophisticated than the early efforts.

https://portal.chicagopolice.org/por...ports/MA11.pdf
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Old December 23 2012, 03:18 PM   #372
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

It's from a 2000 report, but still...
http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/pub/pdf/wo.pdf

On page 4: The estimated rate for murder offending by women in 1998 was 1.3 per 100,000 & about 1 murderer for every 77,000 women. The male rate of murder offending in 1998 was 11.5 per 100,000, about 1 murderer for every 8,700 males.
Pretty ugly are the numbers regarding relatives, ugh:
28.3% of females kill their spouses, only 6.8% of males do.
10.4% of females kill their stepchildren or children, only 2.2% of males do that.
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Old December 23 2012, 03:41 PM   #373
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

teacake wrote: View Post
JarodRussell wrote: View Post
teacake wrote: View Post

MEN.

Overwhelmingly the problem. What's the gender divide on murders?
Women don't shoot, they poison.
I said murder, not shoot
We'll, I've just been concentrating on Chicago this last little bit (last link above) and women were 9.x percent of victims, but 10.4 percent of offenders, so, YOU"RE WINNING!

There are some very intesting charts in it. The number of offenders has plummeted five fold (figure 20), while the number of murders has dropped only by roughly half, as if they're winnowing down the number of total players while moving on to semi final contestants, as if they will come down to a handful of key actors. This has been seen many times before as initial chaos gives way to securely established criminal territories, as happened back in 20's and 30's. This might be backed up by figure 30, number of offenders with prior arrests, which trends up, indicating more seasoned, experienced killers. However, part of the drop in offenders might be due to the delay in clearing a case.

Fascinating stuff.
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Old December 23 2012, 03:48 PM   #374
gturner
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

JarodRussell wrote: View Post

Pretty ugly are the numbers regarding relatives, ugh:
28.3% of females kill their spouses, only 6.8% of males do.
10.4% of females kill their stepchildren or children, only 2.2% of males do that.
I saw a bizarre and disturbing statistic that was uncovered from medieval German death records. Researchers were sifting through the old data looking for child mortality predictors, and the leading indicator that popped out was whether the baby's paternal grandmother lived in the home. After much head scratching, they realized that the father's live-in mothers must've been killing the babies, probably if they suspected that their son wasn't the real father. Grimm's Fairytales had old German ladies pegged.
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Old December 23 2012, 07:38 PM   #375
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Re: MASSIVE Elementary School Shooting in CT *12-24 Maybe be dead

gturner wrote: View Post
JarodRussell wrote: View Post

Pretty ugly are the numbers regarding relatives, ugh:
28.3% of females kill their spouses, only 6.8% of males do.
10.4% of females kill their stepchildren or children, only 2.2% of males do that.
I saw a bizarre and disturbing statistic that was uncovered from medieval German death records. Researchers were sifting through the old data looking for child mortality predictors, and the leading indicator that popped out was whether the baby's paternal grandmother lived in the home. After much head scratching, they realized that the father's live-in mothers must've been killing the babies, probably if they suspected that their son wasn't the real father. Grimm's Fairytales had old German ladies pegged.
Ok, that sent a chill down my spine.
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