Thoughts on the Typhon Pact (Cold Equations spoilers)

[rfmcdpei]

The Cold Equations series has gone into more detail about the divisions inside the Typhon Pact. Next year's Fall series, taking in crews from all the different series as the galaxy reacts to a barbarous act allegedly commtted by the Pact, may see the pact shatter.

Broadly speaking, there seem to be two tendencies in the Typhon Pact, with the three Beta Quadrant members interested in detente with the Federation and the three Alpha Quadrant members more interested in conflict. The Romulan Star Empire, apparently the single most powerful Pact member-state, now leads the detente tendency under Praetor Kamemor. This is a bit of a shift in Romulan policy, since the Romulans who took the RSE into the Pact--Tomalak, for instance, and Tal'Aura herself--hoped to use the Typhon Pact to magnify Romulan strength relative to the Federation, perhaps in preparation for a war against the Federation and the Klingon Empire. Kamemor has no truck with this, and in Silent Weapons was willing to let the Breen hang themselves rather than to abandon her detente.

The Romulans seem to be in a position to support the Gorn Hegemony, which has a relatively good historical relationship with the Federation and seems to have joined the Typhon Pact as much out of fear of the Klingon Empire as anything else. The Bacco-Sozzerozs initiative to get the Romulans to become Gorn patrons, protecting the Hegemony against the Breen, might work.The Kinshaya didn't have much of a relationship with the Federation at all, joining the Pact exclusively out of a (IMHO) justified fear of the Klingon Empire. Conceivably the Holy Order might also be interested in Romulan sponsorship. A sub-alliance within the Pact, featuring the larger Romulans extending patronage to the Gorn and the Kinshaya, in the context of Romulan-led detente with the Federation, could be durable.

(Much depends on the evolution of the Klingon Empire. If the Klingon Empire's policies towards its neighbours changed, then neither the Gorn nor the Kinshaya would feel the same impetus to remain inside the Typhon Pact for protection. For that matter, the Romulans, too, might change their minds.)

This Romulan sub-alliance is going to be shaken very badly by the upcoming Hobus supernova, of course. For that matter, the course of Romulan politics is not yet settled. If there was a shift towards more anti-Federation policies, then Tal'Aura vision of a Romulan-led Pact versus the Federation may yet be fulfilled.

The Alpha Quadrant powers in the Typhon Pact seem much less inclined towards detente with the Federation. For the Breen and the Tzenkethi, anti-Federation sentiment seems to be visceral, rooted in a sense of the Federation's fundamental wrongness, whether we're talking about the multi-species Federation's refusal to hide the species identities of its citizens under mask or the democratic governance that allows Federation citizens regardless of their genome to participate in policymaking. It seems unlikely that either power will stop being anti-Federation, frankly. Similarly, the Tholians are still--somewhat understandably--still caught up by the Federation exploitation of Shedai relics that, among other things, accidentally led on multiple occasions to the mental rape of the Tholian species by their ancient oppressors. The Breen and the Tholians, at least, seem to be fairly large powers, approaching the Romulan Empire in size and larger than the Gorn and Kinshaya; the Tzenkethi might also fall into this size category.

[Markonian]

The Klingons' policy, that's indeed the question. Their lack of diplomacy and insatiable thirst for war is bordering on the annoying. No wonder they betray the Federation STO.

I hadn't realised until now that the war-like/detente-favouring division line matches the locations in their respective quadrants. I wonder whether this is of further significance?

I would like to read more about the Kinshaya. So far, they've only really featured in The Struggle Within. In addition, we haven't heard much about the Typhon Pact ruling board and space Typhon 1 in while.

[rfmcdpei]

Markonian wrote:

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The Klingons' policy, that's indeed the question. Their lack of diplomacy and insatiable thirst for war is bordering on the annoying. No wonder they betray the Federation STO.

If you could have some sort of Klingon moral revolution, something that makes the Klingon military caste less invested in incessant war against established neighbours--or, at least, incessant war against powers that aren't going to go away--then the Beta Quadrant powers of the Typhon Pact could fall away.

I hadn't realised until now that the war-like/detente-favouring division line matches the locations in their respective quadrants. I wonder whether this is of further significance?

The Typhon Pact does surround the Federation on most sides, the Alpha and Beta Quadrant powers bracketing the Federation. The Beta Quadrant powers also all have relatively more extensive histories of conflict with the Klingons than the Alpha Quadrant powers: the Klingons may not get along with the Tholians or the Breen, but the volume of blood spilled with the Romulans and the Gorn and the Kinshaya is vastly greater.

If the Beta Quadrant powers fell away from involvement with the Typhon Pact, then it would definitely be weakened. The Gorn and the Kinshaya may not be such big assets--relatively small powers, and exposed powers--but absent the Romulan Star Empire's heft the Pact wouldn't be able to challenge the Federation for local dominance. That said, without the Beta Quadrant powers the three Alpha Quadrant powers that would remain would arguably be more strategically coherent--a more-or-less contiguous bloc of powers, strongly united behind a deep hatred of the Federation.

I would like to read more about the Kinshaya. So far, they've only really featured in The Struggle Within. In addition, we haven't heard much about the Typhon Pact ruling board and space Typhon 1 in while.

The RSE of Kamemor seems uninterested in challenging the Federation or in following the lead of the Pact's aggressive powers. I can't help but think that the events on the Orion homeworld will make things more difficult for the Breen.

[Deranged Nasat]

As early as Zero Sum Game, it was clear that the Breen were wary and envious of the Romulans' clout within the Pact, with suggestions that the alliance risked becoming nothing more than "Romulus and Friends" - or so some in the Confederacy government argued. Some of the Breen in that novel seemed as worried about losing control of their destiny to the Romulans as they were paranoid about the Federation's slipstream advantage. While the Tholians and Tzenkethi have plotted and schemed aplenty (the latter against fellow Pact members as well as the Federation) it's clear that the Breen are the aggressive member state with the most to prove to their fellows - they're not just seeking to undermine the UFP or stabilize the Pact, they're seeking a leadership role, and the Romulans are the ally standing in the way of that, simply by virtue of being the strongest member. Aiming to prove themselves as powerful, as resourceful, and as skilled in espionage as the Romulans, able to hold their own against them, has apparently been an ongoing concern of the Breen since the Pact was founded. (Imperator Sozzerozs even suspected that this was motivating the Breen in Silent Weapons prior to gaining a better understanding of the situation).

Given that most of the Breens' tension with the idea of the Romulans as Pact leaders was already evident back when the two nations had a reasonably coherent policy regarding the Federation, or when remnants of Tal'aura's government were still in a position to work alongside the Breen (Tomalak and Sela's scheme in PoN/RtD), I can't help but wonder if that distrust and resentment will deepen further now that Kamemor's in charge. Now that her regime is running things in Ki Baratan, the Romulans and the Breen are on opposite sides of one of the major issues the Typhon Pact has to grapple with, namely how it relates to its rival/inspiration the Federation. Not only that, but they're clearly positioned to be the leading nations on their respective sides of that ideological divide. The Gorn are going to seek protection under the Romulan wing, and I agree that the Kinshaya are in a position to do so as well. And while the Tholians and Tzenkethi have pursued their own plots against the Federation, it's the Breen who seem to be pooling resources and leading all the combined efforts (I get the impression that the Tholians are off playing with Andor and the Autarch, as his title suggests, is doing whatever the hell he wants, and it's the Breen who are actually the motivating force behind getting them working together. Which makes sense, I'd say, given the relative lack of historical interest with alien contact that both T-races have; old habits die hard). If the Gorn do indeed get in closer with the Romulans and maybe share their concerns and revelations with Kamemor's government, I think it could well lead to a Alpha-Beta division within the Pact, with the Romulans and Breen struggling for dominance.

I agree the Federation's next act should be to try and encourage the Klingons to build bridges with the Romulans, Gorn and Kinshaya and stabilize the Beta Quadrant so it can focus on the hostile bloc on the Alpha side.

EDIT: I also have my theories regarding The Fall, and how it might relate to the Pact's internal disagreements. I won't say much because some of it edges into story idea territory, but I'll be interested to see if the reality bears any relation to what I've pondered.

[Markonian]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

I like the idea of the Typhon Pact and while the Cold War background is sooo 20th century I am glad that the pact isn't a rehash of the Soviet Union and more like a mirror of the early Federation but more powerful, darker and edgier.

By the way, what do you think about the Taurus Pact from Rise Like Lions? Do you think this mirror counterpart has any spiritual significance for thoughts about the Typhon Pact? Alas, the Taurus Pact is generally friendly to the Galactic Commonwealth, it seems.

[rfmcdpei]

Markonian wrote:

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I like the idea of the Typhon Pact and while the Cold War background is sooo 20th century I am glad that the pact isn't a rehash of the Soviet Union and more like a mirror of the early Federation but more powerful, darker and edgier.

By the way, what do you think about the Taurus Pact from Rise Like Lions? Do you think this mirror counterpart has any spiritual significance for thoughts about the Typhon Pact? Alas, the Taurus Pact is generally friendly to the Galactic Commonwealth, it seems.

The Taurus Pact was a responsive to the Klingon-Cardassian alliance that dominated located space, in the same way that the Typhon Pact was a responsive to the Federation-Klingon alliance. There are some differences, perhaps partly connected to the Mirror Universe's lack of an all-mobilizing event like the Borg invasion: the Tzenkethi are isolationists, as are the Kinshaya. Most notably for our purposes, the Romulans are not in the Taurus Pact--the scouring of Romulus by a thalaron bomb and years of Klingon invasion disrupted the Romulan state while the discussions were going on, and the reformed Star Empire ended up allied to the Galactic Commonwealth.

Thinking off-hand, the Taurus Pact seems more likely to endure than the Typhon Pact. A Breen-Tholian grouping is relatively compact, although the Gorn are exposed. More to the point, the Klingon-Cardassian alliance--the Klingons, more specifically--are much more of a threat than the Federation ever was. Killing everyone on Romulus and invading the Star Empire's outer worlds, conquering the Talarians, using anti-stellar munitions to destroy the Ferengi homeworld and then attempting to blow up B'ha'vael, attempting an all-out conquest of the Hegemony ... the Klingons are an existential threat. I can imagine that attempts to contain the Klingons will be a top priority for the surviving powers.

[Markonian]

rfmcdpei wrote:

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... the Klingons are an existential threat. I can imagine that attempts to contain the Klingons will be a top priority for the surviving powers.

Cool, I hadn't thought of that yet. However, the Klingon Empire is led by Duras now, who is/was a member of Memory Omega and is, thus, a more mature and less warlike leader. He might be able to contain the Klingon blood thirst for some time, similar to Martok.

The Klingons being so extreme in this continuity, shouldn't that propel the Kinshaya into the Taurus Pact, too?

[rfmcdpei]

Markonian wrote:

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Cool, I hadn't thought of that yet. However, the Klingon Empire is led by Duras now, who is/was a member of Memory Omega and is, thus, a more mature and less warlike leader. He might be able to contain the Klingon blood thirst for some time, similar to Martok.

One can only hope. If nothing else, Memory Omega's mastery of the Genesis Device will keep Klingon ambitions in check, one way or another.

The Klingons being so extreme in this continuity, shouldn't that propel the Kinshaya into the Taurus Pact, too?

Quite possibly. My impression is that Kinshaya membership in the Pact in the main universe was triggered by the significant pressures brought by the conquest of the Kreel and the destruction of the Kinshaya homeworld--the Kinshaya had to get allies, or die. This doesn't seem to have happened in the MU.

[Hartzilla2007]

rfmcdpei wrote:

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One can only hope. If nothing else, Memory Omega's mastery of the Genesis Device will keep Klingon ambitions in check, one way or another.

Plus I think the collapse of the alliance left them militarily crippled for the time being

[Markonian]

Concerning the Mirror Universe, we now have to wait and see how the first contact with the Dominion will turn out. They found the wormhole in 2381...

The Typhon Pact is now several years old and I am actually surprised it consits of the founding members only. I thought the Khitomer Alliance and the TP would go on a rapid expansion. Okay, we had the admission of the Ferengi and the Cardassians to the KA and the reunification of the Romulans, but aside from that... The Talarian admission failed miserably and the TP hasn't yet incorporated the Andorians.

What are the odds that we will see a significant expansion to membership?

[Christopher]

Well, after the initial form of the European Community was established in 1952, it was nearly six years before any further members joined. The US needed about 8 months to get its first 11 states admitted and then added one per year for the next 4 years, but after that it was 4 more years before a 16th state was added, then 7 years until the next one, and so on.

So rapid growth after founding isn't an automatic thing. Sometimes it happens, sometimes not. Consider how much trouble the Typhon Pact's founding members have had getting along with each other. I think they'd have to sort out those difficulties before they'd begin seriously considering expansion.

[Markonian]

Thanks for the real world comparison. Good to know the current TP membership is not set in stone, changes are possible.

Who knows how the Sheliak, Nalori, Orions, Nausicaans and Letheans consider their position on the astropolitical stage in relation to the big blocks in the future?

[Christopher]

Markonian wrote:

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Who knows how the Sheliak, Nalori, Orions, Nausicaans and Letheans consider their position on the astropolitical stage in relation to the big blocks in the future?

The Sheliak seem too unfriendly toward other species to be good candidates for an alliance -- although I guess you could've said the same about the Tholians, Tzenkethi, and Kinshaya. But IIRC, I established in The Buried Age that the Sheliak have a history of conflict with the Breen.

The Nalori in the 24th century are known to be enemies of the Orions, even though they seemed to be working together in Vanguard a century earlier. We know from SCE: Invincible and A Time to Kill/Heal the the UFP has a contract with the Nalori Republic to export chimerium. That suggests they're on good terms in the 2370s/80s, despite having been at odds in earlier times.

Silent Weapons shows the Orion homeworld to be a Switzerland-like nation, politically neutral and home to major banking organizations that are used by people who have reason for keeping their transactions secret. I doubt they'd want to give up the profit their neutrality brings them by taking sides politically. And the Orion Syndicate is apparently something separate, a criminal organization that by the 24th century has expanded to become a multispecies affair (since we never saw any actual Orions in the DS9 episodes dealing with the Syndicate).

No idea about the Nausicaans and Letheans. We don't have a lot of information to go on there. But they don't seem to be major states.

[JD]

So the Syndicate is not the Orion government in current Trek Lit? I've seen several other sources say the Syndicate was their government, and I always thought that seemed a bit odd.

[Christopher]

JD wrote:

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So the Syndicate is not the Orion government in current Trek Lit? I've seen several other sources say the Syndicate was their government, and I always thought that seemed a bit odd.

The Orion Syndicate was always portrayed in DS9 as a criminal organization, not a state. It was only in ENT that the Syndicate was implied to be a government. And we know that the Orion government in the TOS era was studiously neutral as a cover for its piratical activities. From Silent Weapons, it looks like that neutrality has become a reality by the 24th century and there's more separation between the Syndicate and the state than there once was.

I daresay that the Syndie was probably always a criminal organization, but that in the past it had so many politicians in its pocket that it effectively ran the state. SW suggested that there was still a fair amount of corruption, but that it wasn't as pervasive as that anymore.