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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old November 28 2012, 09:01 PM   #16
Crazy Eddie
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

RAMA wrote: View Post
newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
It's not "per year" though, that's his upper limit for the colony itself. With anything resembling realistic technology, it would take upwards of ten years to transport that number of people to Mars, even before accounting for returns and deaths.

Millions of people needed for Mars colony, so 80k+ would just be the number moving to Mars per year
https://twitter.com/elonmusk
Which links to this article which interviews the ACTUAL Elon Musk. It's not the first time he's quoted his "80,000 people" figure, it's just the most recent.

Don't get excited, Rama.
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Old November 28 2012, 09:33 PM   #17
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
It's not "per year" though, that's his upper limit for the colony itself. With anything resembling realistic technology, it would take upwards of ten years to transport that number of people to Mars, even before accounting for returns and deaths.

Millions of people needed for Mars colony, so 80k+ would just be the number moving to Mars per year
https://twitter.com/elonmusk
Which links to this article which interviews the ACTUAL Elon Musk. It's not the first time he's quoted his "80,000 people" figure, it's just the most recent.

Don't get excited, Rama.

Im well aware of the capacity of current rockets, well aware of the idea that spacex would basically be passenger "bus" rockets to Mars and that they wouldn't be running the colony itself, and most of all aware of the potential timeline, I predicted at 50% chance of a Mars landing by 2035..personally I wish I felt they were higher. What's new is that this isn't some back page idea and artist's rendering, it has a motivated person with money behind it, and if this particular motivated person doesn't do it, others will...eventually. The technology will be there.

As for the quote, he follows up on his quote on twitter and I have seen it repeated on other media pages on my phone, so I'm sticking with it till he says otherwise.
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Old November 28 2012, 11:43 PM   #18
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

I'd be nervous about putting more than a thousand people on Mars, since the more people there are the better chance their inevitable rebellion has of succeeding, and Mars colonies always rebel - always.
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Old November 28 2012, 11:45 PM   #19
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

gturner wrote: View Post
I'd be nervous about putting more than a thousand people on Mars, since the more people there are the better chance their inevitable rebellion has of succeeding, and Mars colonies always rebel - always.
Meh, as long as it doesn't go all Doom on us, let them.
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Old November 29 2012, 05:42 AM   #20
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

RAMA wrote: View Post
What's new is that this isn't some back page idea and artist's rendering, it has a motivated person with money behind it, and if this particular motivated person doesn't do it, others will...eventually. The technology will be there.
"Someone will do it eventually" isn't news either. Musk has been making public statements about his Mars idea for several years now and it has made headlines every single time.

As for the quote, he follows up on his quote on twitter and I have seen it repeated on other media pages on my phone
So a twitter comment gets reposted by other twitter users and that makes it news?

Are you powers of critical thinking really that degraded?
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Old December 2 2012, 08:59 PM   #21
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

If he's seriously planning on doing this, it's going to take a lot of work and a lot of hiring...
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Old December 3 2012, 07:54 PM   #22
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

Speaking about bugging out--did anyone catch this last night?
http://channel.nationalgeographic.co...vacuate-earth/

Here, the ponderous, multinational, big goverment craft is the one that worked where the one-percenters were blown all to hell on the anti-matter upstart.

I think Rand Simberg probably fainted when he saw that one--and then fired off a nasty poison pen--er--stylus. Savior I was probably another of "kiss-of-death" Gary Hudson's ideas http://www.transterrestrial.com/?p=4...comment-296310

Seriously, though, the more the merrier. I might want different ships to go to different destinations--although it might be best to have the rag tag fleet to draw from. At any rate, anti-matter production (even more so than nukes) is a Manhattan Project scale undertaking that would bankrupt even Gates.

In other news, Alabama's own version of ENTERPRISE character Trip Tucker (i.e. Travis Taylor) will also be back:
http://channel.nationalgeographic.co...ama-blast-off/
http://channel.nationalgeographic.co...city-rednecks/
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Old December 3 2012, 08:03 PM   #23
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

National Geographic has been running a lot of bizarrely bad programs lately, I guess their version of SyFy original movies, especially the one where the Earth stopped revolving on its axis.
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Old December 3 2012, 08:16 PM   #24
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

If you're going to post tons (and tons) of links to stuff, you could at least make sure they work.
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Old December 3 2012, 09:12 PM   #25
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

They work fine for me.
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Old December 3 2012, 09:58 PM   #26
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

Really? cause that one for transterrestrial just goes to an empty comment page for me. some title about 20th century progressives, but no article. And nothing relating to Elon, SpaceX, or recent discussion in this thread that I could find.
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Old December 8 2012, 09:58 PM   #27
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

In the comment section.

In case no one has mentioned it, a private company has announced a moon mission
http://goldenspikecompany.com/

Some interesting quotes from this link:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...opic=30549.105

"I was telling people that "tumblr" site was full of nonsense."
"GS gets a FAIL on mass communications for something so EPIC."


true--didn't make spacedaily yet..

Big "admiration" for NASA noted in closing remarks.

Jeff Foust tweet: "Stern: this would not be possible without our current forward-looking space policy."

“NASA is tackling the very important and difficult challenges of human deep space exploration by developing systems including the Orion spacecraft and Space Launch System. The capabilities being developed by Golden Spike compliment NASA’s deep space exploration program.” said MacCallum.

Maybe he was being diplomatic. Other responses:

"But they really aren't taking advantage of the Falcon Heavy."
"I have a hard time believing a Centaur will ever be integrated with a SpaceX vehicle"

"There's a bunch of others errors in this paper relating to the Dragon. It seems they've gotten no better information out of SpaceX than us amateurs. I think Golden Spike needs to go pay SpaceX for some mission analysis. That's the only way they'll get real numbers on the Falcon Heavy / Dragon capability."


http://cosmiclog.nbcnews.com/_news/2...4-billion?lite

http://www.newspacejournal.com/2012/...ike-questions/
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...9264#msg989264
http://www.newspacejournal.com/

At about 1.4 billion...about the price of an SLS. I really don't see the savings...by Grabthar's hammer.

Some more interesting blurbs from the net:

"Even with this “head start” approach, the company will still need
significant amount of money to develop this system: Stern said they
estimate the cost to be $7–8 billion"


"But John Pike, a longtime expert on space policy who heads
GlobalSecurity.org, said he was "deeply skeptical" about Golden Spike's
business plan. "If you could do it this cheap, somebody would have
already done it," he told me.


"Landing pod looks like-Cobra Flight Pods from 1980's G.I. Joe cartoons"

"Except that the development cost is far more than $1.5 billion. Stern was clear that it would require multiple billions to get to the first mission. So your first 50 kilograms might cost $8 billion, and your second 50 kilograms might cost only $1.5 billion, or $9.5 billion for 100 kilograms. Hard to see how that is a bargain."

"And why does anybody believe these numbers? I listened carefully and never heard anybody state who did their cost estimates. Were they done by an independent assessment team that has a reputation for producing accurate cost estimates?"

This is why heavy lift matters. Had Apollo--or Constellation--been allowed to continue, you could have had real infrastructure to allow for a true moonbase with sizable rovers and an ability to DO WORK. One way or another, BEO is going to cost billions--so you might as well spend a bit more, preserve infrastructure here, and have real capabilities out there.

Apollo allowed for a pretty good haul of moon rocks that were selected in situ and by hand no less. The LEM, already pushing it mass constraint wise, was a tank compared to this contraption. A thimble too much of regolith and you're not coming back. The LEM allowed a lander which covered more ground faster than any robotic rover before or since.

GS is basically asking for its astronauts to dance barefoot atop a razor blade over the Pit... that's the margin you are talking about here.

What they are selling as their plan's biggest strength is actually a weakness. No new LV capability that will allow simpler, more robust missions farther afield like SLS for comparable amounts of money.

Therefore GS's plan is more "Flags and Footprints" than Apollo itself was--because that's all the blasted thing will hold. In retrospect--Apollo allowed more real science than GS affords.

Were I a very wealthy investor, I would launch a Bigelow module to ISS, try to inherit that for a song--and put the other 6 billion into MCT and Skylon development.

Remember, the big arguement against SLS was that it was too expensive--and an alternative could be found. Well, here it is--and many folks seem to take a dim view of that and question its savings too.
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Old December 9 2012, 08:52 AM   #28
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

publiusr wrote: View Post

At about 1.4 billion...about the price of an SLS. I really don't see the savings...by Grabthar's hammer.
Yep, for the price of an unlaunched SLS with NO PAYLOAD, you get an entire moon mission. Sounds like a deal to me.


This is why heavy lift matters. Had Apollo
It's been 40 years, let it go.
--or Constellation--been allowed to continue, you could have had real infrastructure to allow for a true moonbase with sizable rovers and an ability to DO WORK.
Nope, You'll have a pad queen that gets launched MAYBE once every 2 to 4 years if they can find the money to scrounge for a payload. We've been over this. Seriously, put down the Kool -Aid and start looking at the numbers.
One way or another, BEO is going to cost billions--so you might as well spend a bit more, preserve infrastructure here, and have real capabilities out there.
Agreed. Spend more on infrastructure like EELVs that cost a fraction of SLS and build up infrastructure in space like EML-2 and fuel depots. Get some real capabilities out there.

Apollo allowed for a pretty good haul of moon rocks that were selected in situ and by hand no less. The LEM, already pushing it mass constraint wise, was a tank compared to this contraption. A thimble too much of regolith and you're not coming back. The LEM allowed a lander which covered more ground faster than any robotic rover before or since.
Your seriously going to judge their plan based on virtually no details beyond an artist's rendition of a possible lunar lander?

GS is basically asking for its astronauts to dance barefoot atop a razor blade over the Pit... that's the margin you are talking about here.

What they are selling as their plan's biggest strength is actually a weakness. No new LV capability that will allow simpler, more robust missions farther afield like SLS for comparable amounts of money.
IF SLS were actually "comparable money" this might be true. Reality is that it will be the usual government work program over inflated costly boondoggle. NASA needs to get out of the transportation business.

Therefore GS's plan is more "Flags and Footprints" than Apollo itself was--because that's all the blasted thing will hold. In retrospect--Apollo allowed more real science than GS affords.
Remember, this is only phase A of Golden Spike's plan.

Were I a very wealthy investor, I would launch a Bigelow module to ISS, try to inherit that for a song--and put the other 6 billion into MCT and Skylon development.
Somehow I think the governments that run ISS would turn you down. Musk owns SpaceX, he might take your money, but your not getting the company. Good luck with Skylon.

Remember, the big arguement against SLS was that it was too expensive--and an alternative could be found.
It is too expensive and the argument is that alternatives already exist. No searching needed.
Well, here it is--and many folks seem to take a dim view of that and question its savings too.
You should actually read what the folks on those forums are saying. They aren't questioning the savings. They are questioning where the investments will come from. GS is asking for a lot of money up front, but still a small percentage of what NASA would need to do the same mission.

In fact, that's why I wasn't really excited by the Golden Spike announcement on Thursday - No big investors announced with it. Just more dreamers I fear.

As the saying still goes - "No bucks, No Buck Rodgers".
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Old December 9 2012, 07:00 PM   #29
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

The first comment I saw on it was something like, "Wow, a new startup offering vaporware and PowerPoint presentations!"

Among my problems with it is that it's too much like Apollo, designing in mission limitations during the concept stage, specifically crew size and duration. They even consider a non-pressurized lander. They might as well go ahead and paint a Red Bull logo on the vehicle because that is a stunt.

Their concept drawing doesn't include solar cells, so they're either going with fuel cells or batteries (probably batteries because they haven't committed to cryogenics, which would make off-the-shelf fuel cells an easy choice). If they go with batteries (Apollo's LM used 255 pounds of them) then they can't extend stay time and also virtually rule out re-usability and slow, low delta-V prepositioning of the lander.

People have spent forty years thinking up better ways to do a lunar return, and the internet is full of ideas for it. Although such thoughts might not be official design studies, they'd still be useful, and should at least have been looked at.

Rand Simberg was scratching his head over this proposal's listing of $100 million for crew training as a non-recurring cost.
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Old December 9 2012, 10:13 PM   #30
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Re: Spacex CEO wants to co-build and fund huge Mars colony effort

publiusr wrote: View Post
Some interesting quotes from this link:
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...opic=30549.105
Stop.
Spamming.
From other.
Boards.

That is all.
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