The Cancellation Game - October

[Starbreaker]

Which of these show will be cancelled by the end of October?

A correct guess will be 1 point
An incorrect one will be -1.
Poll will close in 7 days

[auntiehill]

voted.

[Temis the Vorta]

Oops I mean to vote for 666 Park Ave, too. But really its cheating to vote for shows that have debuted, since the writing is usually on the wall or heavily leaning one way or the other the first week.

Of the shows yet to debut, I say Beauty & The Beast goes down in flames, too dumb even for the CW, but Nashville does well and Chicago Fire does well enough for now.

[Random_Spock]

Voted.

[Tom Hendricks]

I voted, I believe that Mob Doctor will be the first show cancelled. Then 666 Park Avenue and Made in Jersey. With The Neighbors somewhere in there.

[bigdaddy]

Mob Doctor is dead, Fox just doesn't have anything to fill it in with. If I were them I'd stick Touch there.

[the G-man]

From what I've read, Mob Doctor is the clear favorite to be the first cancelled show of the season.

[bullethead]

I'm surprised there aren't more votes for Last Resort. Between the low-ish ratings and the sheer cost of producing a show like that, it's a clear frontrunner for getting axed. Critical acclaim isn't enough to keep a show on the air.

[Temis the Vorta]

Last Resort is toast, it was a big gamble for ABC that didn't pan out. And a good example of why networks are so risk adverse. FOX's dino show was the expensive flop of last season.

What works are cheap sitcoms and reality TV, and dramas that are very well matched to the particular network's existing viewership, which means they should be similar to what is already on that network. I thought 666 Park Ave was close enough kin to Once Upon a Time (fantasy) and Revenge (glamorous and soapy) but apparently even that was too far afield. Audiences are piiiiicky. But I'm still sanguine about Nashville, which has the soapy/bitchy DNA that works well for ABC.

NBC is the exception, since they are still trying to rebuild an audience. The fact that Revolution is working out for them is a great sign - now that show will be their touchstone for future drama development, which bodes somewhat well for sci fi and very well for action/adventure. If Chicago Fire hits, then that will be the second touchstone confirming that NBC needs to focus on male-skewing action shows, genre or not.

[Drago-Kazov]

I would not suprise me if Last Resort would end up like Kings.

[indianatrekker26]

I won't be sad if 666 gets cancelled, but i gotta say, i did enjoy last night's episode more than the premiere.

[FPAlpha]

Temis the Friendly Ghost wrote:

---

Last Resort is toast, it was a big gamble for ABC that didn't pan out. And a good example of why networks are so risk adverse. FOX's dino show was the expensive flop of last season.

What works are cheap sitcoms and reality TV, and dramas that are very well matched to the particular network's existing viewership, which means they should be similar to what is already on that network. I thought 666 Park Ave was close enough kin to Once Upon a Time (fantasy) and Revenge (glamorous and soapy) but apparently even that was too far afield. Audiences are piiiiicky. But I'm still sanguine about Nashville, which has the soapy/bitchy DNA that works well for ABC.

NBC is the exception, since they are still trying to rebuild an audience. The fact that Revolution is working out for them is a great sign - now that show will be their touchstone for future drama development, which bodes somewhat well for sci fi and very well for action/adventure. If Chicago Fire hits, then that will be the second touchstone confirming that NBC needs to focus on male-skewing action shows, genre or not.

Yeah but what if the gamble pays off? Look at Lost and how that show took off.

Successful networks like ABC who have quite a few stable shows like Castle can afford to roll the dice once in a while and maybe it sticks. I hope more TV networks do the same or the landscape will get boring as hell.

[Temis the Vorta]

Networks have tied themselves in knots trying to replicate Lost, resulting in one expensive failure after another. Revolution may be a success at long last, but is that because its like Lost or because it's a less gory version of The Walking Dead?

ABC isnt a good example of a "safe" network. It's been just a step or two up from NBC in terms of being a disaster. The safer networks are FOX (which wins in the 18-49 demo) and CBS (good demo due to having the largest audience even if it skews old).

CBS got to where they are today by taking the least chances of any network, no sf/f genre shows for instance unless you count a doctor or lawyer talking with angels or ghosts as genre. FOX has been very unambitious for the current season and I think their lack of daring might hurt them, but the jury is still largely out.

Even if broadcast is being incentivized to take no risks, there's always cable, where the incentives are more in the risky direction, because of the different economies that make one cable viewer more valuable than one broadcast viewer (especially premium cable) so that catering to niche audiences makes more sense. That's the reason why Game of Thrones and Mad Men can exist at all.

PS, Castle's ratings on ABC are far from solid and the show may be headed for cancellation.

[the G-man]

The safer networks are FOX (which wins in the 18-49 demo)

...but how much of that "win" is due to American Idol and other singing/reality shows?

Fox has a pretty lengthy history of cancelling shows.

[Temis the Vorta]

If singing/reality is what lets them win, then it make sense that they'd be less tolerant of drama, which is less of a safe win. If that's true, that is. A lot of reality shows flop, too.

The point is, being a safer network in terms of success doesnt make you more likely to take risks. It might teach you that taking risks doesnt pay, or is simply unnecesary since you can get by without risks just fine.

Lately, NBC has been taking the most risks of any network, because they are desperate to find somethng that works (and have Comcast to bankroll their risk taking.) ABC, which has also been struggling, has been taking some risks. Even the CW is trying to expand more into male-skewing shows, which is a risk for them. FOX and CBS, which are doing best, are taking the fewest risks.