Does the Federation still exist in the 31+th century?

[King Daniel Into Darkness]

Here's the dialogue:

DANIELS: This species has technology which allows them to examine alternate timelines. They've seen this future, and they want to change the outcome.

The Sphere Builders saw the Battle of Procyon V in a possible future. They saw themselves losing the war with the Federation, so they tried to get the Xindi to destroy Earth in the 22nd century. In doing so, they brought their defeat forward by 400 years. A spectacular failure.

[Count Zero]

Daniels was already influencing Archer in a somewhat inapporpriate manner as far as the influence on timelines is concerned. It makes sense for him to be as vague as possible in his conversations with Archer and to confine himself to only divulge details necessary to get Archer to do what it necessary. What Archer needed to know at this point was the fact that Sphere Builders were waging a larger-scale attack against the Alpha Quadrant in the future and that Xindis and humans will fight them together.
It would make sense for him to word his statements in such a way as not to blow Archer's mind.

[Edit_XYZ]

KingDaniel - if you're watching the episode, care to quote Daniels' exact line about the number of federation members? - it's not timeline specific. On the other hand, it's specific regarding the relative number of members.

And - Daniels doesn't talk about the Procyon time-line as of a dreamland what if. Quite the opposite. "Momentous event in history", etc.

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I'm not so sure everything Daniels says can be taken at face value. Why trust him?

[Edit_XYZ]

Because:
As a general principle, it's constructive to interpret on-screen events in the way in which they have an effect, the alternative being utterly unsupported speculation.

Also - whatever could be verified about what Daniel' said in the 22st century was verified.

[King Daniel Into Darkness]

Edit_XYZ wrote:

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KingDaniel - if you're watching the episode, care to quote Daniels' exact line about the number of federation members? - it's not timeline specific. On the other hand, it's specific regarding the relative number of members.

ARCHER: The Federation. You've mentioned them before.

DANIELS: Vulcans, Andorians, Ithanites (sp?), Klingons. Dozens of species, including humans. All unified in a powerful alliance.

And - Daniels doesn't talk about the Procyon time-line as of a dreamland what if. Quite the opposite. "Momentous event in history", etc.

Yes, but in the same speech he talks about alternate futures. Alternate timelines in Trek are not "dreamland", they're differing versions of history - just look at "Mirror, Mirror", "Parallels", STXI etc.

A few episodes later, we hear the Sphere Builders discussing the shifting futures... (from "Countdown")

SPHERE BUILDER: The time lines are in constant flux. Many of them favour the primates and the arboreals. Some even favour the humans. Unless that's the outcome you desire I suggest you find a way to launch the weapon.

Also - whatever could be verified about what Daniel' said in the 22st century was verified.

In "Storm Front" he implies that Earth no longer exists by his time. Then in "Shockwave" we find out future-Earth is his base of operations.

[Mr. Laser Beam]

One thing definitely seems clear: The Federation has as many members as the episode's plot requires.

[Sci]

Mr. Laser Beam wrote:

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One thing definitely seems clear: The Federation has as many members as the episode's plot requires.

For whatever it's worth, the novel Articles of the Federation establishes the Federation to have 155 Members as of December 2380.

[Hando]

Sci wrote:

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For whatever it's worth, the novel Articles of the Federation establishes the Federation to have 155 Members as of December 2380.

Yes, but how many of these members are actually former human colonies?

[The Wormhole]

Hando wrote:

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Yes, but how many of these members are actually former human colonies?

The number 155 refers to member species, not worlds.

[Edit_XYZ]

KingDaniel wrote:

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DANIELS: Vulcans, Andorians, Ithanites (sp?), Klingons. Dozens of species, including humans. All unified in a powerful alliance.

An unambiguous statement.

Yes, but in the same speech he talks about alternate futures. Alternate timelines in Trek are not "dreamland", they're differing versions of history - just look at "Mirror, Mirror", "Parallels", STXI etc.

Perhaps, but we have yet to hear a character mentioning an event in an alternate timeline as a 'momentous event in history'.
You cannot seriously think the scenarists intended for the timeline Daniels spoke of to be, for him, little more than an abstraction, among uncountably many others like it.

Almost certainly, the scenarists didn't plan ahead; but they intended for Daniels' speech to be about his own history, with emotional resonance to him.

One could try to explain the inconsistency in that the sphere builders made, with the Expanse, an attempt to disrupt history that Archer thwarted.
That their original attack is placed into the future, when they very rapidly modified space (we know they can do it from 'Zero hour') and were stopped by the federation at Procyon 5 (which will take place as seen).

A few episodes later, we hear the Sphere Builders discussing the shifting futures... (from "Countdown")

SPHERE BUILDER: The time lines are in constant flux. Many of them favour the primates and the arboreals. Some even favour the humans. Unless that's the outcome you desire I suggest you find a way to launch the weapon.

From the sphere builder's perspective, it was unwritten future.
From Daniels' perspective, it was written past.

In "Storm Front" he implies that Earth no longer exists by his time. Then in "Shockwave" we find out future-Earth is his base of operations.

In 'Storm front' he uses ambiguous statements ~'more or less' - transparently ambiguous, as opposed to lies, that is.
He affirms nothing definite; which was his intent.

Daniels' definite, unambiguous statements came to pass.

PS
As for "Living witness" - the future of the federation, as glimpsed in that episode, is consistent with the one glimpsed in Enterprise:

26th century - the battle of Procyon 5.
Daniels tells Archer directly that the 26th century federation consists of "dozens of species". The statement puts certain limits on the number of member species in the federation - a few hundreds, at most.

Well - the federation contains a few 'dozens of species' (hundreds of species) by the 24th century, as well.
Sounds as if a long period of isolationism - or, at least, limited to non-existent inclusion into the federation of new members - is coming for the federation.

Considering that the, BY FAR, largest, most radical changes for the federation resulting from recent exploration were the dominion war and the borg invasion (both of these antagonists, relatively newly discovered)...well, the loss/gain results of exploration don't look good at all.

One can go further, to the 28th century and that federation's 'guilty until proven innocent' policy.
The isolationist policy of the previous centuries - becoming an extremist, 'for the fatherland' loss of liberty in the name of security?

Apparently, the wounds from the borg invasion left some pretty ugly scars on the federation.

That the federation should unify the galaxy under its banner and ideals is a VERY HIGH ORDER, indeed.
And, as seen in recent lit, the federation is no stranger to large scale failure.
Who guaranteed the federation will succeed where so many other civilizations failed?

[NrobbieC]

Here's a theory. Given time isn't linear what if the Battle of Procyon V and the fate of the Expanse are linked, the Federation defeats the Sphere Builders in the 26th century while Enterprise defeats them in the 22nd, as both succeed both Expanses dissipate simultaneously.
It's shown people from the 26th century can time travel (TNG: A Matter of Time) so it's easy to assume they've developed temporal shielding (VOY: Year of Hell), also with the events of ENT being history to them they'd know what was going to happen so they wouldn't be affected by any change in the timeline, only the Expanse would be, this is of course assuming it would change since the various species have messed with time so much, the contradictions need each other to keep the timeline stable or some crap like that.
It's a messy little paradox but that's nothing new.

[Hando]

The Wormhole wrote:

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The number 155 refers to member species, not worlds.

The exact quote is :

We now have one hundred and fifty-four members, many of whom have more than one world under their purview.

In general is should be member = species. But former colonies (mainly human ones) can become members. As several, that we know of, did: Mars, Centauri, Terra Nova, Cestus ...

[Sci]

Hando wrote:

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The exact quote is :

We now have one hundred and fifty-four members, many of whom have more than one world under their purview.

In general is should be member = species. But former colonies (mainly human ones) can become members. As several, that we know of, did: Mars, Centauri, Terra Nova, Cestus ...

To be specific, in those novels, Federation Membership refers to polity, not to planets -- which are units of geology, not governance -- or to species -- which is a matter of demographics.

In other words -- Humans are not necessarily Federation Members, as there are Humans who are not born Federation citizens and who live on non-Federation worlds. Rather, the polity known as United Earth is a Federation Member, and Earth is United Earth's capital planet. But United Earth's territory also includes other planets and habitats, including Luna. Thus, though United Earth is often informally referred to as "Earth," the planet itself is not a Member, but rather is the principle territory of a Member. (To make a comparison, it's sort of like how the Big Island of Hawai'i is not a state, but it is the principle territory of the State of Hawaii, and the State of Hawaii is often called "Hawaii" informally after it.)

ETA:

Furthermore, not all citizens of United Earth are Human -- many United Earth citizens are from numerous other species who have communities on Earth. And not all Humans are United Earth citizens -- several former Earth colonies have since become independent of United Earth and joined as separate Member polities themselves, such as Deneva. And not all planets in the Sol system are part of United Earth, either -- the Confederated Martian Colonies became an independent state before the founding of the Federation, and later joined as a separate Federation Member. And not all Martians are Human, either -- Mars has had a longstanding Tellarite community, and was represented on the Federation Council in the TOS era by a Tellarite Martian in the novel DTI: Forgotten History. Populations intermingle.

Obviously, the canon has never gotten this explicit about the distinction between a polity and the planetary territory it inhabits -- just like most people don't get that specific in everyday language about the difference between a state and the territory the state inhabits -- but I can't imagine that Federation Membership could be based on anything else. You can't base it on species, after all (any more than you could base citizenship today on skin color), and you can't base it on pure geography any more than you could today (what with planets not having political opinions, only the people on them), and since most of the constituent polities of the UFP would already encompass more than one planet (in the same way that, the State of New York encompasses both the inland upstate area and Long Island).

[Mr. Laser Beam]

NrobbieC wrote:

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Here's a theory. Given time isn't linear what if the Battle of Procyon V and the fate of the Expanse are linked, the Federation defeats the Sphere Builders in the 26th century while Enterprise defeats them in the 22nd, as both succeed both Expanses dissipate simultaneously.

Once the Expanse is destroyed in the 22nd century, the 26th-century version can't dissipate - it will have never existed at all. None of the historical events leading up to it will have happened, either. There can't be a "real" Battle of Procyon V, because that presupposes the existence of an Expanse and Sphere Builders in the 26th century. Thanks to "Zero Hour", those have been wiped out.