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Science and Technology "Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known." - Carl Sagan.

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Old August 25 2012, 02:32 AM   #31
Australis
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

STR wrote: View Post
If a child born today will be 88 in 2100, that child will have had an entire life to make the world a better place in 2100. It's his responsibility, not ours. The generation in power has to make sure things don't get FUBAR between now and 2020. The generation after that has to keep things intact until ~2050 and even the generation mentioned in the OP will really only be in control until ~2080. The succeeding generations will have a far better understanding of the needs of their time than we will. Our best thinking could create massive problems down the road. Choking, sooty pollution used to be viewed as a good thing, a symbol of productivity and advanced technology less than a century ago.

It's fine to think about the future, but thinking there is a lot we can do, aside from climate change mitigation, is false. Also, futurists need to really get off the idea of "exponentially faster" development. There will be no singularity.
Bolding for emphasis. No, it's our job to make the world the best it can be to hand on to them. They mess it up, that's their problem, but we shouldn't expect them to fix our mess up.

I still think the Singularity is going to happen, if - and it is a crucial if - we can overcome the energy problems, which we are capable of doing of the will is there.

One reason I think the Singularity is coming is things like the following article, which is much closer in time frame. Some of the comments at the end are interesting too.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/mobile/te...f-ffffffffffff
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Last edited by Australis; August 25 2012 at 02:44 AM.
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Old August 25 2012, 03:11 AM   #32
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Australis wrote: View Post
One reason I think the Singularity is coming is things like the following article, which is much closer in time frame. Some of the comments at the end are interesting too.
The only persuasive prediction in that article is the disappearance of credit cards.
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Old August 25 2012, 07:24 AM   #33
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Why is it that almost everyone I have ever met who believes in the approaching singularity seems to be an extremely avid reader of pop-sci magazines?
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Old August 25 2012, 08:01 AM   #34
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Australis wrote: View Post

One reason I think the Singularity is coming is things like the following article, which is much closer in time frame. Some of the comments at the end are interesting too.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/mobile/te...f-ffffffffffff
Seriously? That's not an article. It's a list of bad assumptions. Almost every thing in it was wrong.

ETA: Was that webpage designed by a kindergartener from 1993?
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Old August 25 2012, 11:41 AM   #35
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Who cares about autonomous cars and reality shows on Mars, when in 2063 we're breaking the warp barrier?
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Old August 25 2012, 05:16 PM   #36
Australis
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

ETA: Was that webpage designed by a kindergartener from 1993?
Yeah, something weird happened to the formatting after I read it.
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Old August 25 2012, 07:30 PM   #37
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

YellowSubmarine wrote: View Post
Who cares about autonomous cars and reality shows on Mars, when in 2063 we're breaking the warp barrier?
I'm worried about the disappearance of credit cards. How am I supposed to start you a tab at my bar? I need something to hold on to just in case you get wasted and walk out!
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Old August 25 2012, 07:42 PM   #38
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

I think technology for transportation will come at a slower pace. Folks then will look back on our love of fabulous sci-fi tech like FTL in ST and SW as being quaint--while building Foundation's Future. Now winged craft for space, but larger capsules with greater capability, like this uber capsule: http://www.frassanito.com/work/images/planning02.jpg
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Old August 25 2012, 08:48 PM   #39
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

RoJoHen wrote: View Post
YellowSubmarine wrote: View Post
Who cares about autonomous cars and reality shows on Mars, when in 2063 we're breaking the warp barrier?
I'm worried about the disappearance of credit cards. How am I supposed to start you a tab at my bar? I need something to hold on to just in case you get wasted and walk out!
You scan their credit chip or whatever before you serve them anything.
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Old August 25 2012, 09:35 PM   #40
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

Robert Maxwell wrote: View Post
RoJoHen wrote: View Post
YellowSubmarine wrote: View Post
Who cares about autonomous cars and reality shows on Mars, when in 2063 we're breaking the warp barrier?
I'm worried about the disappearance of credit cards. How am I supposed to start you a tab at my bar? I need something to hold on to just in case you get wasted and walk out!
You scan their credit chip or whatever before you serve them anything.
I can do that with the credit cards, too, but there are occasions when it is not the preferred thing to do.

Plus, it's always fun listening to the hungover phone calls the next day:

"I was out last night, and, uh, I think I left my credit card at your bar."

"Hold on, drunky, let me check for you."
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Old August 26 2012, 12:54 AM   #41
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

By now we should have realized that all the predictions ever made for the future were far off the mark. No steam powered space ships. No flying cars. Oh, and we still have oil, but no fusion energy. So why bother doing it over and over again? All the guesses will be wrong anyway.
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Old August 26 2012, 09:31 PM   #42
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

publiusr wrote: View Post
I think technology for transportation will come at a slower pace. Folks then will look back on our love of fabulous sci-fi tech like FTL in ST and SW as being quaint--while building Foundation's Future. Now winged craft for space, but larger capsules with greater capability, like this uber capsule: http://www.frassanito.com/work/images/planning02.jpg
This, I could see. If you make it reusable and stick it on top of the 2100s equivalent of a Falcon-9, it would probably see daily use as an Earth-to-orbit transport craft.
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Old September 1 2012, 01:37 AM   #43
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

The oil economy and globalization may implode. Oil isn't magic: given the surge in demand from China and India for not only gasoline, but plastic crap, it's going to peak and there will be hell to pay. If we're bright enough to anticipate this and move away from oil, technologically sophisticated society will survive. If we stay the course...global dark age.
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Old September 2 2012, 10:24 PM   #44
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
This, I could see. If you make it reusable
Reusability is now seen as a wasteful distraction--more and more we are seeing systems scale up--to wit:

Energia revival?
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...?topic=12705.0
www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?pg=3&id=355341
www.nasawatch.com/archives/2012/08/energia-20---ru.html
www.russianspaceweb.com/energia.html
http://www.buran-energia.com/blog/lang-pref/en/


http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_08_27/Ru...e-not-a-dream/
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...?topic=12705.0

CHINA's HLLV concept:

From Craig Covault's home site
http://www.americaspace.org/?p=22881

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...8344#msg808344
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...8958#msg928958

SPECS
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...2781#msg812781

More
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/ind...2190#msg922190

Some quotes from nasaspaceflight.com

"I don't see this as an Apollo architecture. The vehicle is planned to be significantly more powerful then Saturn V, the only reason you need something like that is if you're planning on building a base there."


From Phillip Clark, a great space researcher:

"For those of us who have followed the Chinese programme since the launch of Dongfanghong in April 1970, the current pace of the programme is almost supersonic! :-) China's programme has always progressed slowly, but this does not mean that they are not serious with their plans for programmes like piloted lunar missions and perhaps-serious plans for piloted missions beyond the Earth-Moon system."

"The Chinese always do what they promise in space, just not in the timescales that many people outside China are used to. Remember that we "oldies" grew up during the race to the Moon during the 1960s and the Chinese do not see themselves racing anyone anywhere at present."


SLS has 8 meter core.
CZ-9 has a 9 meter core.
Saturn V could put 118 t into LEO. CZ-9 can put 130 t into LEO.

Last but not least
http://www.chinesedefence.com/forums...n-landing.html

from nasaspaceflight--"According to chinesedefense.com, the new launch structure currently under construction in Hainan will service rockets with LEO payloads in the 25 to 200 (!) ton range."


Our efforts:
http://www.space-travel.com/reports/...rkout_999.html

I see geoengineering by 2100. Reasons for it:
http://cosmoquest.org/forum/showthre...80#post2059780
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Old September 3 2012, 01:53 AM   #45
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Re: Envisioning the world of 2100

publiusr wrote: View Post
newtype_alpha wrote: View Post
This, I could see. If you make it reusable
Reusability is now seen as a wasteful distraction
So are seatbelts and vaccinations, but not by people who matter.




SLS has 8 meter core.
CZ-9 has a 9 meter core.
Saturn V could put 118 t into LEO. CZ-9 can put 130 t into LEO.

Last but not least
http://www.chinesedefence.com/forums...n-landing.html
This shit again?

Once and for all, out with it. Do you actually believe that HLVs are appropriate for all possible space missions, or are you just looking for excuses to spam?
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