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Old May 13 2012, 08:40 PM   #16
Kegg
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

RAMA wrote: View Post
Did anyone notice Brin mentioned a new Uplift novel!?
All I saw is the interviewer speculating that this new book could be seen as an early Uplift book, and Brin agreeing, pointing out there's a subplot about considering uplifting chimpanzees and dolphins... as opposed to outright saying the book is meant to be part of the Uplift Universe.
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Old May 13 2012, 08:59 PM   #17
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

RAMA wrote: View Post
Anyone who believes there will be a Singularity of some kind bases it on extrapolation of fact.
So, they're placing faith on the fact that their extrapolation is correct?

RAMA wrote: View Post


A lot of sci-fi writers, technologists, economists, educators, scientists, etc are finally coming around to the likelihood of a singularity. I've seen a lot of recent articles where they are becoming convinced. Eventually economic planning will abandon the linear, innacurate model we have now and move towards an exponential one.
And a lot don't.
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Old May 13 2012, 09:05 PM   #18
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Kegg wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstrably false.
First I heard of this. Care for a demonstration?
There's a lot of information to cover, and I'd refer you to detailed books on the subject. Here's a history of accelerating change by John Smart, which has links to books and sites, which supply graphs and mathematical evidence on the subject.

http://www.accelerationwatch.com/history_brief.html

The wikipedia entry:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c5/PPTMooresLawai.jpg/596px-PPTMooresLawai.jpg

10 drivers of accelerated change:

http://blog.speculist.com/fastforwar...ard-radio.html

Rand report on accelerated change:

THE GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION: Bio/Nano/Materials Trends and Their Synergies with Information Technology by 2015

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j...8tKjmEzgEKHcJA

http://www.singularityweblog.com/joh...-slowing-down/
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Last edited by RAMA; May 13 2012 at 09:17 PM.
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Old May 13 2012, 09:07 PM   #19
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Kegg wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
Did anyone notice Brin mentioned a new Uplift novel!?
All I saw is the interviewer speculating that this new book could be seen as an early Uplift book, and Brin agreeing, pointing out there's a subplot about considering uplifting chimpanzees and dolphins... as opposed to outright saying the book is meant to be part of the Uplift Universe.
More of the "serious" authors are writing SF set in Einstein's universe, for example, without cheats like warp drive and such. Oh, I'll pretty soon write another Uplift Universe novel, with twenty ways to get around old Albert. Great fun!
Not saying he made an official announcement, just that it looks like he might write one.
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Old May 13 2012, 09:10 PM   #20
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

sojourner wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
Anyone who believes there will be a Singularity of some kind bases it on extrapolation of fact.
So, they're placing faith on the fact that their extrapolation is correct?

RAMA wrote: View Post


A lot of sci-fi writers, technologists, economists, educators, scientists, etc are finally coming around to the likelihood of a singularity. I've seen a lot of recent articles where they are becoming convinced. Eventually economic planning will abandon the linear, innacurate model we have now and move towards an exponential one.
And a lot don't.

True, though my point is that they are coming around rapidly.
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Old May 13 2012, 09:23 PM   #21
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

^You're missing the point. The singularity is about as certain as the rapture. In other words, it's not. There is no guarantee that technology will advance at an accelerated rate especially in all areas. You need to temper your optimism with some realism. Things don't always work out.
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Old May 13 2012, 10:37 PM   #22
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

RAMA wrote: View Post
Kegg wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstrably false.
First I heard of this. Care for a demonstration?
There's a lot of information to cover, and I'd refer you to detailed books on the subject. Here's a history of accelerating change by John Smart, which has links to books and sites, which supply graphs and mathematical evidence on the subject.
Ah, but what I asked was proof for the statement: 'The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstratably false' - that is, a disproof of alternatives to accelerationism, one that makes it clear that these alternatives are as credible as geocentrism or Flat Earthers. It is not enough for John Smart to have a credible narrative; his must be the only credible narrative.

However, from one of your own links (the wiki) I see:
Both Theodore Modis and Jonathan Huebner have argued—each from different perspectives—that the rate of technological innovation has not only ceased to rise, but is actually now declining. The validity of their conclusions has been criticized by John Smart.
From the wiki articles regarding both men:

Theodore Modis (born 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant.
He went to Columbia University, New York, where he received a Masters in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in physics. Dr Modis carried out research in particle physics experiments at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN, before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group.
Jonathan Huebner is a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California.
These men are, presumably, not fantasists.
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Old May 14 2012, 05:40 PM   #23
RAMA
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Kegg wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
Kegg wrote: View Post
First I heard of this. Care for a demonstration?
There's a lot of information to cover, and I'd refer you to detailed books on the subject. Here's a history of accelerating change by John Smart, which has links to books and sites, which supply graphs and mathematical evidence on the subject.
Ah, but what I asked was proof for the statement: 'The real fantasy here is linear thinking in technology which is demonstratably false' - that is, a disproof of alternatives to accelerationism, one that makes it clear that these alternatives are as credible as geocentrism or Flat Earthers. It is not enough for John Smart to have a credible narrative; his must be the only credible narrative.

However, from one of your own links (the wiki) I see:
From the wiki articles regarding both men:

Theodore Modis (born 1943) is a strategic business analyst, futurist, physicist, and international consultant.
He went to Columbia University, New York, where he received a Masters in Electrical Engineering and a Ph.D. in physics. Dr Modis carried out research in particle physics experiments at Brookhaven National Laboratories and CERN, before moving to work at Digital Equipment Corporation for more than a decade as the head of a management science consultants group.
Jonathan Huebner is a physicist working at the Pentagon's Naval Air Warfare Center, in China Lake, California.
These men are, presumably, not fantasists.

Let me be clearer then...I believe there is enough evidence to show that linear technological progression, in info technologies, as well as others that are being discovered all the time (biotech, nanotech, etc) is no longer an acceptable way to perceive there growth. It is a bias based on human limitations, as pointed out in the Smart history. Accelerated growth is a fact, the conclusions to be drawn from this is speculation, as are any future events, but it is being supported by more evidence all the time, to the point where I think a Singularity is likely.

This is true, there are criticisms, and I agree the conclusions can go in a number of directions, but acceptance of accelerated change is only building, its not going anywhere soon. The criticisms I have seen have been rebutted (in my opinion successfully) on many occasions by those who are proponents of it.

RAMA
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Old May 14 2012, 05:40 PM   #24
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

sojourner wrote: View Post
^You're missing the point. The singularity is about as certain as the rapture. In other words, it's not. There is no guarantee that technology will advance at an accelerated rate especially in all areas. You need to temper your optimism with some realism. Things don't always work out.
See my answer above
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Old May 14 2012, 08:58 PM   #25
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

^Well, good luck to you then. See you in 20 years when things haven't changed as much as you think.
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Old May 15 2012, 04:19 AM   #26
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

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^Well, good luck to you then. See you in 20 years when things haven't changed as much as you think.
I see things changing even now in day to day life...its one of several things that came together the last few years that led me to believe that it will be possible, even probable. The frequency of change I see from technology sites compared with 5 or 10 years ago is astounding...I think it's the people who can't get past their own one dimensional thinking (through no fault of their own...don't blame them for seeing things in a limited way, based on our linear perception) who will be shocked in 20-30 years.
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Old May 15 2012, 04:22 AM   #27
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

From the revamped David Brin site, info on the new book as well as 2 more TED talks on the singularity:

http://www.davidbrin.com/
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Old May 15 2012, 04:33 AM   #28
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

RAMA wrote: View Post
The frequency of change I see from technology sites compared with 5 or 10 years ago is astounding...
Then you haven't been watching technology long enough.

I remember being astounded by my first 50MB harddrive. Then again by my 500MB drive, and my 2GB, 200GB, 1TB drives over the past 20+ years. In 1995 I could get on the internet and surf websites using Windows 95 and netscape. Not all that different from how I surf the web today.

Just because you woke up one day and said "Gee, things have changed a lot in the last 5 years" doesn't indicate a trend. It's just you becoming aware of something that has existed all along.
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Old May 15 2012, 04:53 AM   #29
RAMA
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

sojourner wrote: View Post
RAMA wrote: View Post
The frequency of change I see from technology sites compared with 5 or 10 years ago is astounding...
Then you haven't been watching technology long enough.

I remember being astounded by my first 50MB harddrive. Then again by my 500MB drive, and my 2GB, 200GB, 1TB drives over the past 20+ years. In 1995 I could get on the internet and surf websites using Windows 95 and netscape. Not all that different from how I surf the web today.

Just because you woke up one day and said "Gee, things have changed a lot in the last 5 years" doesn't indicate a trend. It's just you becoming aware of something that has existed all along.
But as I have said, the tech builds on itself, I'm not discounting past change (itself part of accelerated change of course) but the effect that has on current and future technology is the key for growth.

Yes, I've been following technology for a long time, I've been interested since the 80s (well I was a teenager..) and read futurists in the 90s, and was part of a futurist organization at that time as well, and while I was aware of accelerated tech in general, to me the outcomes were all negative till the last few years...I now see alternatives, as well as the fact that stuff I only saw predicted is actually coming true.

RAMA
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Old May 15 2012, 07:08 AM   #30
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Re: David Brin's latest novel, and a TED talk

Science is not a religion.
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