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Old March 20 2012, 02:10 AM   #661
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

The instability that led to the War of Five Kings was caused by three things:

1) The plots of Varys, a loyalist of House Targaryen.
2) The plots of Petyr Baelish, whose motives are somewhat unclear, beyond personal advancement.
3) Cersei and Jaime's secret relationship (which both 1 and 2 exploit).

Joffrey's succession only caused a problem because he was not, in fact, the rightful heir to the throne. Without that, neither Ned nor Stannis would have opposed his taking the throne, it's rather hard to imagine that Renly would have fancied his odds, and Balon Greyjoy's insurrection would almost certainly not have happened (or else, been easily put down like the previous one) in light of the unity of the realm.

When you think about it that way, Cersei (and Jaime) completely screwed over their House's long-term prospects.
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Old March 20 2012, 02:49 AM   #662
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

CaptainCanada wrote: View Post
The instability that led to the War of Five Kings was caused by three things:

1) The plots of Varys, a loyalist of House Targaryen.
2) The plots of Petyr Baelish, whose motives are somewhat unclear, beyond personal advancement.
3) Cersei and Jaime's secret relationship (which both 1 and 2 exploit).

Joffrey's succession only caused a problem because he was not, in fact, the rightful heir to the throne. Without that, neither Ned nor Stannis would have opposed his taking the throne, it's rather hard to imagine that Renly would have fancied his odds, and Balon Greyjoy's insurrection would almost certainly not have happened (or else, been easily put down like the previous one) in light of the unity of the realm.

When you think about it that way, Cersei (and Jaime) completely screwed over their House's long-term prospects.
Tyrion thinks that too, in Clash of Kings I believe. All Cersei had to do was have one child by Robert and her family would have had an undisputed claim on the Iron Throne.
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Old March 20 2012, 04:24 AM   #663
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

One thing I always wonder about is Littlefinger's plan. He seems to be the Joker of Westeros, sowing discord without any real purpose. He undoubtedly knows that Cersei's children are illegitimate, but he keeps that information to himself. Perhaps he wants to have something to hold over Joffrey later. When Jon Arryn finds out, Littlefinger persuades Lysa to kill him. When Ned Stark finds out, Littlefinger betrays him and lets him die. But then Littlefinger himself has Joffrey assassinated later.

(I almost posted that in the other thread. This can get confusing. I would have ruined a lot of people's day...)
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Old March 20 2012, 04:34 AM   #664
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Littlefinger is, much like Varys, inciting the various great houses to destroy each other while accruing more and more influence for himself. His various dealings are all aimed at drawing factions into the conflict, then weakening/undercutting them.

While I expect he still has a few cards close to his chest, the plan he details to Sansa at the end of AFFC makes plenty of sense. With the Lannister-Tyrell alliance falling the pieces, Dorne presumably to enter the fray soon along with Aegon, etc., he has at this call the only fresh and unbattered army in all of Westeros (the Vale knights). Marrying Sansa to Harry Hardyng creates a powerful alliance under his control that ideally brings the North (weary as it is), the Riverlands (between Littlefinger's notional lordship and the more important loyalty to House Tully, as represented by Sansa) and the Vale. With that he could rule the whole place (either by becoming king himself or, more likely in my view, using Harry and Sansa as his figureheads, since he seems to prefer smartly staying out of the limelight and holding the real power).

The question marks in this scheme are Dany (though he seems to be aware that she'll show up eventually, based on one comment) and the Others (which nobody is really taking into account, apart from Stannis and Night Watch).
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Old March 20 2012, 04:52 AM   #665
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

He can't marry Sansa to Harry without revealing who she really is, and she's still married to Tyrion so that marriage must first be annulled. This was why Littlefinger helped the Tyrells frame Tyrion for Joffrey's murder, to have him executed and free Sansa for future use as a bride. Unfortunately for him, Jaime and Varys screwed that up.

And I don't see why Sansa trusts him or would be willing to go along with his schemes. She should know that Littlefinger was the one who betrayed Ned in the first place. It won't surprise me if she ends up just sticking a dagger in him when she realizes he's going to kill Sweetrobin (her cousin) to advance Harry.

He undoubtedly knows that Cersei's children are illegitimate, but he keeps that information to himself. Perhaps he wants to have something to hold over Joffrey later. When Jon Arryn finds out, Littlefinger persuades Lysa to kill him. When Ned Stark finds out, Littlefinger betrays him and lets him die. But then Littlefinger himself has Joffrey assassinated later.
Stannis was the first one to figure out that the kids were illegitimate, and he told Jon Arryn so they began investigating Robert's bastards to realize their suspicions. Varys and Littlefinger knew something was up and spied on them, figuring out the secret for themselves.

LF had Arryn killed for two reasons: 1) So he could use it and Lyssa to frame the Lannisters, then alert whoever the next Hand would be and hopefully start up a War. He'd then weigh his options and choose whoever he thought was the likely winner and demand a reward (hopefully a promotion to High Noble) so he could marry Lyssa and become Regent of the Vale. Everything else was just him adapting to random things as best he could and trying to benefit from them. He's just been really lucky more than anything else.

2) He had to keep anyone from de-legitimizing Joffrey in a controlled peaceful way, because that would make Stannis the next in line and Stannis would likely outlaw all the stuff LF makes his money from. That is, if Stannis didn't outright just kick him off the Council.
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Old March 20 2012, 09:45 AM   #666
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

InklingStar wrote: View Post
Once Robert rebelled, he upset that balance. Suddenly the great houses were not equal, the Baratheons became the royal family by conquest. Fourteen years was not enough time to establish their rule as a precedent. Why should Joffrey (even if he was Robert's son) rule? Why not Stannis or Renly? Why not Robb Stark or Balon Greyjoy? Once the Targaryans are out of the picture it becomes a free-for-all.
Having a Baratheon for King of the Seven Kingdoms is not really the same as Robb Stark or Balon Greyjoy claiming this title, though. Robert's claim to the throne was that he himself was related to House Targaryen - via his grandmother, if memory serves. It wasn't as strong a claim to the Iron Throne as any of the surviving Targaryen relatives, but it was a claim, which is significantly more then either Jon Arryn or Ned Stark ever had.

This is why Robb Stark and Balon Greyjoy both go for individual kingship titles, North (plus Trident) and Iron Islands, respectively, because those are ones they can lay claim to from family lineage... while Euron Greyjoy wants a match with Daenerys Targaryen because basically anyone who married her would have an automatic claim on the Iron Throne.
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Old March 20 2012, 12:50 PM   #667
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Anwar wrote: View Post
And I don't see why Sansa trusts him or would be willing to go along with his schemes.
She doesn't. That's quite clear. She just has no other options but to go along with him.
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Old March 20 2012, 01:08 PM   #668
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

She is learning from him better than he realizes. Littlefinger has one big flaw, one weakness, and he isn't going to see her coming up that blind spot when she eventually makes her move.
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Old March 20 2012, 03:57 PM   #669
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Venardhi wrote: View Post
She is learning from him better than he realizes. Littlefinger has one big flaw, one weakness, and he isn't going to see her coming up that blind spot when she eventually makes her move.

I can easily see Sansa being a Lady over one of the kingdoms, she is going to be so shrewed and clever
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Old March 20 2012, 08:00 PM   #670
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

HBO has announced that after the first episode of season 2 airs, they will update the HBO Game of Thrones viewers guide (at http://viewers-guide.hbo.com/ ) with the first official map of the entire continent of Essos.

They also released the final poster in the "for fans" series:

"I will take what is mine!"

http://http://winteriscoming.net/201...for-season-two
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Old March 20 2012, 08:17 PM   #671
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

^^^
Very cool!
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Old March 21 2012, 12:28 AM   #672
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Anwar wrote: View Post
He can't marry Sansa to Harry without revealing who she really is, and she's still married to Tyrion so that marriage must first be annulled. This was why Littlefinger helped the Tyrells frame Tyrion for Joffrey's murder, to have him executed and free Sansa for future use as a bride. Unfortunately for him, Jaime and Varys screwed that up.

And I don't see why Sansa trusts him or would be willing to go along with his schemes. She should know that Littlefinger was the one who betrayed Ned in the first place. It won't surprise me if she ends up just sticking a dagger in him when she realizes he's going to kill Sweetrobin (her cousin) to advance Harry.

He undoubtedly knows that Cersei's children are illegitimate, but he keeps that information to himself. Perhaps he wants to have something to hold over Joffrey later. When Jon Arryn finds out, Littlefinger persuades Lysa to kill him. When Ned Stark finds out, Littlefinger betrays him and lets him die. But then Littlefinger himself has Joffrey assassinated later.
Stannis was the first one to figure out that the kids were illegitimate, and he told Jon Arryn so they began investigating Robert's bastards to realize their suspicions. Varys and Littlefinger knew something was up and spied on them, figuring out the secret for themselves.

LF had Arryn killed for two reasons: 1) So he could use it and Lyssa to frame the Lannisters, then alert whoever the next Hand would be and hopefully start up a War. He'd then weigh his options and choose whoever he thought was the likely winner and demand a reward (hopefully a promotion to High Noble) so he could marry Lyssa and become Regent of the Vale. Everything else was just him adapting to random things as best he could and trying to benefit from them. He's just been really lucky more than anything else.

2) He had to keep anyone from de-legitimizing Joffrey in a controlled peaceful way, because that would make Stannis the next in line and Stannis would likely outlaw all the stuff LF makes his money from. That is, if Stannis didn't outright just kick him off the Council.
I've noticed that outside of the people of King's Landing, nobody seems to know that Littlefinger betrayed Ned. Cat certainly didn't know, let alone the North.

On your last point, Littlefinger pretty much told Ned that Stannis would excuse him from the Small Council so he had a good reason for not helping Ned out. Ned never seemed to consider this and that bit him in the ass.
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Old March 21 2012, 01:09 AM   #673
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

Ned and Stannis both have the same fatal flaw: They do what is right no matter the cost.
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Old March 21 2012, 01:55 AM   #674
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

InklingStar wrote: View Post
Ned and Stannis both have the same fatal flaw: They do what is right no matter the cost.
I don't know about that. We can infer from the books - and the TV show will likely make plain - that Stannis is shagging Mel. Plus Mel uses their shagging to produce black magic that assassinates Renly. It's not quite clear to what extent Stannis is aware of that plot, but I think he was probably in on it. Stannis is a very rigid man and has a certain code, but he's certainly willing to do unsavory things to further his campaign for the throne.
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Old March 21 2012, 02:10 AM   #675
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Re: A Song of Ice and Fire/Game of Thrones Spoiler-Filled Discussion

That's the thing about Stannis. He USED to be a guy who was "I must follow the law no matter the cost" but has become the guy who keep compromising his principles for his ambitions.

Normally, a guy willing to compromise personal beliefs for results wouldn't be such a bad thing but for Stannis it's pretty awful since he doesn't have any real restraints anymore.

It's a nice subtly for a series that's supposedly dark and cynical: The guys who are amoral (Tywin) and violate their own principles (Stannis) may seem to have the upper hand but eventually it blows up in their faces (Tywin suffering patricide, Stannis' usage of black magic ended up giving the Lannisters a huge advantage).

The honorable people like Ned may have gotten killed off early on, but they had such an impact on people in their lifetimes DUE to their inherent goodness and honor that their legacies will live on much longer. Ned has been mentioned with fondness in every single volume by a variety of people, whereas most everyone forgot about Robert after he died and I can't imagine anyone will think fondly of Tywin or be inspired by his memory.
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