long waits on Netflix

[Holdfast]

Temis - I think one aspect you might be missing on is that Netflix won't actually WANT to be able to send everyone every DVD they want immediately. They may SAY that they want this, but it really isn't somthing they should be trying to do, and I bet they don't.

What they'll be trying to do is balance demand vs supply and find the sweet spot. The sweet spot NOT being matching demand completely, but finding the minimum level of supply to ensure an acceptable rate of growth of customer base. They'll want to find the minimum level of supply, because it will then cost them less to provide it, and so their profit will increase. They don't want to poison the well too much of course, but a little bit of toxicity in the water isn't a problem as long as the number of customers annoyed isn't enough to generate enough negative noise that it puts off new subscribers and the vast majority of their current customer base.

This is what I meant by it being efficient to annoy you and others like you a little bit. Of course, they run the risk of losing you as a customer, but since they're already losing money on you, that hardly matters. The only problem would be if there are enough of you, generating enough negative commentary, that it affects the rate of acquisition of profitable customers. Given what I hear of Netflix's rate of growth, they've probably got the balance reasonably well-judged, and are operating fairly efficiently. This may change over time as their customer base matures, and they may need to adapt their model in one direction or another, but so far, they seem to be operating well enough.

[Temis the Vorta]

Temis' Report on Netflix's Supposedly Awesome Customer Service:

Pfffft.

I got through almost immediately, and the guy was certainly nice, but he did nothing to solve the problem. He did make vague noises about how they've had to "change their business model" because of the problem cropping up in the "past quarter," which makes me think that the Blockbuster flame-out is, indeed, behind the increased wait problem.

I told him that both those movies had been waitlisted for two months and he offered no solution other than "wait."

But since this problem is not new - it's just worse than it's ever been - I also suspect my account is being targetted because I return DVDs "too quickly."

So, time for Plan B. I just made a second account and placed only Inglorious Basterds and The Hurt Locker on that account, splitting my two DVD allottment between the two accounts. Lo and behold, Inglorious Basterds is now listed as "available." Let's see what DVD arrives next.

I think one aspect you might be missing on is that Netflix won't actually WANT to be able to send everyone every DVD they want immediately. They may SAY that they want this, but it really isn't somthing they should be trying to do, and I bet they don't.

Yep. I think the missing factor here is that Inglorious Basterds must be costing them more money in licensing fees than, say, some old movie from the '40s. The notion that all these DVDs are worth exactly the same is absurd, yet that is how they are pricing them.

A better solution would be to just be upfront about this: have a points system so that Inglorious Basterds costs five points and Double Indemnity costs one, or whatever the correct proportion of value is. Why should they be shy about this? People will understand why a recent Hollywood release is worth much more than some old movie that's been on TV or some foreign flick nobody's heard of.

The only problem would be if there are enough of you, generating enough negative commentary, that it affects the rate of acquisition of profitable customers. Given what I hear of Netflix's rate of growth, they've probably got the balance reasonably well-judged, and are operating fairly efficiently.

In other words, they're making enough money off the suckers, so who cares about an onery bitch like me?

This may change over time as their customer base matures

If by "matures," you mean "gets a clue," Netflix is safe. They will have enough clueless customers to earn them a hefty profit for the foreseeable future.

Well, if Plan B works out, I plan to do my best to tell the rest of Netflix's non-sucker customer base about it. And like always, this news will reach only a small percentage of people, but they're the percentage who are awake and paying attention, so why shouldn't they reap the benefits?

[Hermiod]

I think you've hit the nail on the head here. You're returning discs too quickly, so it costs them more in postal charges than you're paying in subscription fees.

I suspect they're throttling you full stop. I wonder what would happen if you, temporarily, removed all the recent releases from your queue and just put in old stuff.

[Temis the Vorta]

Yup. But now my "new roommate" has joined Netflix on my account, all bright and cheerful and hopeful, and Netflix will fall all over themselves sending her those few movies she wants. And I'm sure she can add a couple other new releases very quickly that are also long waitlisted on my queue. But being a very different sort of person from me, she'll never have more than four movies in her queue at any time, and they'll always be the most popular types of movies, never some dumb old movie or foreign flick. Her tastes are soooo bourgeois, but what can I say, she pays her share of the rent, is very quiet and never hogs the bathroom.

And if Netflix were to suddenly decide she's also returning movies too quickly, I can easily give her sorry ass the boot and find another roomie.

I wonder what would happen if you, temporarily, removed all the recent releases from your queue and just put in old stuff.

That's exactly what I'm doing, inasmuch as my roommate just loooves all that crap anyway. Here's what the roomie has in her queue:

1. Inglorious Basterds - available now
2. The Hurt Locker - long wait
3. The Cove - very long wait
4. The Box - long wait

So the question is, how quickly will I get #1 and will Netflix simply refuse to send me, err, my roommate #2-4 once that's returned? Or will they magically become available as well? Hmmm.

[RoJoHen]

Temis the Vorta wrote:

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1. Inglorious Basterds - available now
2. The Hurt Locker - long wait
3. The Cove - very long wait
4. The Box - long wait

Out of curiosity, I just added all of these my queue, and they are all available now.

I think Netflix just doesn't like you.

[Stone_Cold_Sisko]

Rarely if ever do I have this problem.

Are you a "high volume" user by any chance? Netflix is known to throttle (or tier) their users so that lower volume users get priority as far as wait goes, because they make money on people who go through less DVDs a month and lose money on those who go through a lot.

EDIT: I should also add, a few days ago I added Hurt Locker to my queue, and it said Available Now. It got sent out yesterday (Saturday) with no wait whatsoever.

[Temis the Vorta]

RoJoHen wrote:

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Out of curiosity, I just added all of these my queue, and they are all available now.

I think Netflix just doesn't like you.

Yep. That's why my roommate will be doing all the heavy lifting from now on or at least until they realize they don't like her, either. But there's plenty more imaginary friends where she came from.

Are you a "high volume" user by any chance?

Yepper. So now my question is this:

Let's say you have one person on an account who goes though 15 DVDs per month. You add another person to that account and together, you go through 15 DVDs per month. Is the first case a high-volume user and the second, not nearly so much since each person is only getting 7.5 DVDs per month?

Even if Netflix treats both cases equally (and logically, they should), if the second person on that account only has a handful of titles in their queue, all of which are high demand, and Netflix has no choice but to send them something, will that override the throttling feature?

[Holdfast]

Temis the Vorta wrote:

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A better solution would be to just be upfront about this: have a points system so that Inglorious Basterds costs five points and Double Indemnity costs one, or whatever the correct proportion of value is. Why should they be shy about this? People will understand why a recent Hollywood release is worth much more than some old movie that's been on TV or some foreign flick nobody's heard of.

People would understand, but they won't like it. At least not as much as the simpler concept Netflix currently uses.

The behind-the-scenes demand management algorithms - rationing, effectively - allow Netflix to promise the world while delivering it country by country.

In other words, they're making enough money off the suckers, so who cares about an onery bitch like me?

I'm far too anglicised to put it so bluntly, but essentially this is probably accurate, from a business perspective.

If by "matures," you mean "gets a clue," Netflix is safe. They will have enough clueless customers to earn them a hefty profit for the foreseeable future.

I think you're right, and they are indeed safe for now. If a competitor came along, operating along different lines (such as the points system you suggested), and took market share, then they'd have to respond. But from what I can tell, all the current competitors use the same model as Netflix.

Let's say you have one person on an account who goes though 15 DVDs per month. You add another person to that account and together, you go through 15 DVDs per month. Is the first case a high-volume user and the second, not nearly so much since each person is only getting 7.5 DVDs per month?

Even if Netflix treats both cases equally (and logically, they should), if the second person on that account only has a handful of titles in their queue, all of which are high demand, and Netflix has no choice but to send them something, will that override the throttling feature?

I suspect their algorithm for deciding these sort of questions must be pretty complex. The management of such a large logistical operation as Netflix would require some very finely-tuned JIT software. And even then, by their very nature, Just-In-Time operations are very sensititive to supply and demand shocks (viz. the Blockbuster effect mentioned upthread). Actually, to a JIT purist, the demand shock is actually a good thing, as it acts as a feedback, identifying inefficiencies, and allowing the protocol to be refined yet further.

[Hoser]

IIRC, they had one of those 'sign this long legal thingy' a long while back, and I remember them giving themselves permission to throttle somewhere within it.
That said, someone told me that certain movies were owned by a company that had an exclusive rental agreement with Blockbuster, and some movies come out slow. I have no idea how true that is....I've pretty much given up in the last half year in getting any recent releases. And yes, I know I'm being throttled, ever since I whipped through a season of 'The office' and 'Doctor Who' in a month....

[RoJoHen]

Hoser wrote:

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And yes, I know I'm being throttled, ever since I whipped through a season of 'The office' and 'Doctor Who' in a month....

I did the same thing with both of those shows, but I watched them instantly on my PS3, so Netflix didn't care.

[Professor Zoom]

Witterquick wrote:

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Their stream quality is poor though so maybe you shouldn't bother.

This is NOT true. I've always had GREAT image at my TV AND if it's available, they stream in HD.

[RobertScorpio]

Professor Zoom wrote:

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This is NOT true. I've always had GREAT image at my TV AND if it's available, they stream in HD.

I agree..this week alone we watched FIVE movies via NETFLIX stream..three of them were high-def and were okay by me...

I think the quality of the stream is dependent on the quality of your internet provider. When we had DSL it was crappy...ever since we switched to cable, its been really good...

Rob

[RoJoHen]

Indeed. If your Netflix streaming sucks, it's because your internet sucks.

[Witterquick]

Oh hey I'm a moron. Sorry I concluded it was poor based on a 1940s movie. After your post, I went back and streamed a newer movie and thought it wasn't too shabby. Streaming still annoys me though. I have an ocd urge to play with my mouse and whenever I do that, the player's navigator bar comes on. I want my mplayer dammit!

[John Picard]

I'm on the 3-at-a-time plan with Netflix and view around 5-6 titles per week (DVD only). I love it.