Alcatraz vs. Terra Nova- Is Fox Going to Chose Between Them?

As you all know, this TV season Fox decided to air Terra Nova in the Fall and in the Spring, replace it Alcatraz. When considering the Fall 2012 TV schedule (assuming Alcatraz continues getting good ratings), is Fox going to chose between these two shows or are they going to look at each show individually, potentially bringing both back? I saw this in an on-line article:

That certainly makes it seem like Fox is going to chose between the two. What have you guys heard?

 

The answer is...

Spoiler: answer

42

 

I think Fox will make their decision about Terra Nova in two weeks. By then Alcatraz will have aired for three weeks, and they can see how much of its audience Alcatraz is losing. Almost all shows lose between the premier and the second episode, but the difference between second and third week will reveal a trend.

 

I think it will boil down to which one costs the most.

Which is Terra Nova

 

I think the least profitable shows will be the ones cut. I don't think it's necessarily a race between Terra Nova and Alcatraz, if there are shows less profitable than either, they could both survive.

 

I think Terra Nova will be renewed regardless of how well Alcatraz does. They say they made money off it, and the ratings were pretty consistent. And most of the experts are interpreting the talk as being fairly good for renewal.

 

Alcatraz has enough fun, eye-catching elements to keep the ratings from immediately falling off a cliff, and no obnoxious family drivel to drive the audience away.

By the end of the season, I suspect it will be in sad shape. I think this is shaping up to be another Lost-style shell game, but the characters and premise aren't as strong as Lost, and can't keep the audience locked in, in the absence of sensible explanations for the story.

So FOX will cancel Terra Nova now, which doesn't mean that Alcatraz will get a second season. By next season, FOX will be in the position of having to replace both (and Fringe, too.)

 

Terra Nova, despite being the most expensive show ever made (so I'm told), never manages to rise above dull mediocrity. Presumably Alcatraz is substantially cheaper, so even if it doesn't do any better in the ratings it might survive.

I admit I don't have much of a vested interest in either show. They could both get shitcanned for all I care.

 

In case people unfamiliar with SF didn't notice, the second episode is shot in Vancouver, where Skiffy shoots all their cheap-ass shows. So to me, that says the budget is modest by network standards.

 

Fox has very limited space and Terra Nova will not make it. All Fox shows compete with each other for room.

Terra Nova did poorly and cost a lot. The same can't be said for other Fox shows.

Plus the president at Fox pretty much even said that Terra Nova news will come soon because they would need to start on season two right away. I just don't see it happening.

 

It has the elements of "Fringe" but without the quirkyness

Hurley is no Walter Bishop and his inexperience with things around him is like Peter in the beginning

Plus we have another cop who is dragged into something mysterious and has a personal grudge(Find her Grandfather)

 

I'm not a Fringe fan, I stopped watching after the pilot, but I don't think Alcatraz is going to last as long as Fringe has.

 

Terra Nova is competing with all the new/old dramas. Fringe is almost certainly done so Fox could decide to keep Terra Nova and Alcatraz as 2 sci fi shows. But Fox needs space on its schedule to give new shows a shot next year. So it's not just Terra Nova vs. Alcatraz. It's Terra Nova vs. The Finder, Touch, Alcatraz, Fringe, and House.

 

Part of the expense of Terra Nova, would have been set construction. Now that has been done and the cost spread throughout the first season. That might allow a small reduction in budget for S2 episodes.

 

I've heard upwards of 3.5 million USD per episode.
That is a lot of money.
I wonder how much a new Trek TV series would actually cost per episode...(broadcast or cable or premium cable...)

It reminded me of this other thread.
Why is there no pure Sci-Fi on TV today? Part Deux

Fox may get rid of Fringe, Alcatraz, and Terra Nova but Bad Robot delivers on TV series and while I didn't think much of the Alcatraz trailer I suppose it will be around for the season.

 

The same could be said for Alcatraz. But Alcatraz has one more thing going for it. No recurring costs for CGI Dinos.

 

Terra Nova also consistently made a profit.

 

If nobody knows Terra Nova's budget, how can anyone calculate whether it made a profit?

And even if it made a profit, that doesn't mean FOX won't cancel it in favor of something they think will make an even bigger profit. Networks might be cancelling profit-making shows left and right. Maybe all their shows make a profit. They don't release enough financial info for us to know.

 

The President of Fox, has said that Terra Nova made a profit:

I think I read in another article, that it made those profits overseas, but I'm not 100% sure...

 

Well I guess we have to take the guy's word for it, but we'll never know for sure one way or the other since they never release financials. Corporate honchos do have a motive to lie/fudge statistics to make their decisions look less idiotic, so when I read that statement originally, I just shrugged.

More importantly, we can't judge how much of a profit it made and whether it exceeds the assumed potential profit of the raft of new shows in development. Those shows are the ones that really threaten Terra Nova. Like I said, for all we know, every show in existence makes a profit, even the ones that get axed after two episodes.