STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Good news everyone!

Rth who is a dependable boxoffice insider just posted this for STID's Thursday's estimates. Looks like it is going to be a hit.

 

17-20m is putting us back on track for an over 100m+ opening especially since 17th is still the date that was on most trailers etc. Hooray.

 

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/star-trek-into-darkness-3d-opens-to-2m-late-night-and-imax/

14m (including 3.2m on Wed/Thurs midnight) which is disappointing; we'll have to see how the weekend goes and hope that the 14m is because of the bump, it wouldn't be the first film to suffer from a quick release date change. I do hope it gets to the projected 100m+.

I think if it continues to see impressive (if not staggering) gains OS and manages to do well in Asia, Paramount will be happy. 200-250m OS could be doable.

 

14m opening including Weds seems really low but it could be due to the late date change but ominously it ties up with the BTC HSX projection from yesterday.

Really great news from Russia though!

It seems that the overseas may end up taking up the slack from a poor North American showing. The only downside to that would be future movies will need to concentrate on action rather than scifi because that is how Paramount pushed it in the marketing.

Unless of course Paramount do what I want () and release the Star Trek movies at a quieter time of year instead of crowded summer or try Christmas.

 

So 14M or 15M opening day? We will have to wait until Friday for the official Thursday numbers.

Also if it gets something like 30M on Friday we will know most people didn't know they moved the release day to Thursday.

 

I will say this, and this is only anecdotal, the love for this movie is all over Social Media, especially tumblr. So I think it will get nothing but positive WOM.

Anything north of 100M and Paramount will be quietly happy, although not jubilant.

I think a lot of us here underestimate the Benedict Fangirl Base.

 

14 million through Thursday is not low.

 

IMO Several tens of thousands of obsessive fangirls can make a huge amount of noise on something like twitter or tumblr but is totally not representative of the general audience as a whole, not when you expect 30 million admissions.

It is though. A number of sites quoted Paramount saying they hoped/expected 20m for Thursday. Its low. It includes Wednesday sneaks as well. $85 4-day is not good when people thought Trek would get $100+ 3-day up until only a month or so ago and now its 15m less for 4 days. With the competition exploding just 1 week after opening, Trek could find itself swept away by the shockwave..

 

I think it makes me believe the 85m 4 day number which is poor.

 

Yeah, yeah, yeah. They're not looking at an 85 million dollar four-day take right now.

This is what Deadline has to say about it:

 

I want to be wrong, I want it to defy the odds and do well. I would love to be totally and unequivocally and comprehensively proved wrong about all this and Trek does really well Fingers crossed

 

Theater was roughly half-full for the 2D showing we went to last night.

 

God dammit Flake, sit back and chill already. You're making me nervous.

 

It only took 11m on the Thursday if they're including the early screenings then? Even worse, we have to hope it's because of the release date move and it has to do stellar business today.

 

Performing up to industry expectations isn't "defying the odds." Relax.

 

Mine was packed, for the record. Tampa, FL.

 

We'll have a much better idea of how things are shaping up once we have the Friday number, especially given the late move of the release date. Until then: keep calm and carry on.

 

Not according to industry analysts, who have called the numbers for a completely unadvertised date change "amazing".

You're clearly expecting Avatar numbers from a movie that has the words Star and Trek in the title. Not possible. The Star Trek stigma will still be with us for one or two more sequels.

 

It should improve on the 09 numbers and to do that it needs to do far better.

Star Trek is over, RIP.

 

No.