STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

fandango reports stid accounts for 71% of ticket saleshttp://m.imdb.com/news/ni53579773

 

MEXICO: 'Star Trek: Into Darkness" Disappoints in Debut

 

Star Trek opened to $1 million in Mexico and made $3.4 million in its entire run there. So STiD opening to $2.6 million is a 160% increase. Maybe they were expecting an even bigger increase - they reportedly opened the film on significantly more screens in Mexico compared to ST - but it's still a big jump.

 

STiD has a shot at $300 million domestic, but bear in mind how difficult it is to achieve that level. Over the last five years only two or three summer movies per year have made over $300 million domestic (three in 2008, two in 2009, three in 2010, two in 2011 and two in 2012).

 

Even though this is true, I think Paramount likely has unrealistic expectations for this film.

 

I don't think so. If STiD makes, say, $275 million domestic I think they'll be happy with that as long as there's improvement in the foreign numbers. Star Trek performed very well domestically. It's the traditional Trek weakness overseas that they're hoping to overcome. If the film does $500 million worldwide that'll likely meet their expectations, even if it doesn't quite get to $300 million domestic.

 

I'm not sure why the Mexico number is bad. I mean the kind of Sci-Fi that Trek offers isn't exactly a big genre in Mexico.

Doing almost as much in the opening as the last film did in its entire run has to be good news.

 

They're at least as concerned with the actual take at the end as they are with measuring any relative improvement.

Link

 

Iron Man 3 will pass $300 million domestic in a couple of days. I'd say four other summer films have a shot at reaching that level: Star Trek Into Darkness, Man of Steel, Monsters University, and Despicable Me 2.

 

A 50% increase in international gross is exactly on track to my prediction of about $180 million. It has an outside chance at $200 million unless the China opening is somehow shockingly good. Still predicting $325 million US.

 

China has the potential to add a huge chunk of money to the international box office, that market has exploded in recent years and I believe it likes to watch big epic 3D movies and I bet thats how Paramount marketed it there.

For example.

Battleship (2012) with Taylor Kitch and Rihanna did $50 million in China !

 

According to someone @ worldofkj forums there has been some advanced preview screenings for Star Trek in Hong Kong over the past week and apparently according to this poster who is obviously an expert on the Hong Kong box office these previews have been doing very well!

Source: http://worldofkj.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=12

 

The Japanese as well as Chinese like movie themes with sacrifice, honor, family.
I think STID can please them.

 

Variety update. $100 million weekend expected.

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/s...s-embarks-on-100-million-plus-bow-1200481894/

 

Same as has already been reported. Per the referenced Variety article:

The hundred million estimate is still counting Thursday and the sneaks tonight.

 

Some people seem to think about 115m over the 4 days is a fair estimate between the low and high?

 

I'm sure that if they do 115 million in four days they'll be thrilled.

However, if they're figuring 90 million Friday-Sunday - to be optimistic - then they need 25 million through Thursday to pull it off.

The buzz is so strong on this movie it may well shock them all and outperform all the domestic tracking.

 

From Box Office Guru on twitter: