It's the latter.
The reboot, TASM, did $262m US domestic, down from the Raimi saga where all entries tallied $300m+
TASM2 isn't going to make $225m US domestic, probably closer to $210-215m and several global territories are underperforming vs TASM.
I fully expect to hear several things:
1- That TASM3 is being pushed back for creative reasons.
2-That the Sinister Six and Venom spinoff movies are placed on hold if not outright cancelled.
3-That someone(s) is fired at SONY