Guinan's grilling of Picard about actions he never experienced and blaming him for the whole mess seems wrong to me and I'm happy to read or contribute to theories behind that as well.
But what I like the best is that it's all speculation based on canon, which itself is open to interpretation. How on earth could anyone get bent out of shape over that?
! I've been wondering myself. But I think that the "crime" for which my alternate idea is ridiculed (are we on Cardassia or still on Earth?) is to take onscreen and offscreen statements at face value and use these to present a different theory according to Occam's Razor which is not compatible with the widespread and popular belief that "Redemption II" did not
change the premise of "Yesterday's Enterprise".
Of course, and I have the impression everyone here is totally aware of that, the moment events in "Yesterday's Enterprise" no longer just take place in a (however) changed timeline of our universe but
a parallel universe, instead, this endangers the status of Rick Sternbach's Enterprise-C
design as "genuinely ours".
Then, the only remaining clues regarding the original appearance of the Enterprise-C
in our universe would be its representation on the conference lounge walls of the "D" and the "E".
I reread some passages of Eric Stilwell's Making of Yesterday's Enterprise
He confirms that Geordi's "universe at war" sleeves were a production error. I also found his wording interesting: He uses "alternate universe" instead of "alternate timeline" or "changed timeline".
Again, a major problem remains that so much has been written about "Yesterday's Enterprise" from the production viewpoint just after the episode had been finished, but in comparison there's little reflection on the events in "Redemption II" and its possible premise change.
At least, Chief Nitpicker Phil Farrand in his Nitpicker's Guide for Next Generation Trekkers
wondered about the Tasha Yar story in "Redemption II" with all that strategic knowledge of the future in her head, but dismissed that as a "plot oversight" (fact remains that they had so much more time to fine tune the script for "Redemption II", opposite the one for "Yesterday's Enterprise").
If you can prove beyond a shred of doubt that "Redemption II" did not
relocate events of "Yesterdy's Enterprise" into a parallel universe, I would be enabled to take your "No" serious.