Think of Doc Brown's chalk board in Back to the Future II (sorry I am at work and cannot upload an image)...
Replace the 1958 in Doc Brown's chalkboard with the Battle of Narendra III (2344).
Replace Marty Mcfly's 1985 with the 2366 where the Federation and the Klingons are at war.
Replace the "hell valley" version of 1985 (the skewed future) with TNG depicted as the "primeline".
If you're going by Back to the Future logic, that supports my conclusion even more. When Marty goes back to 1985 at the end of the first movie, things are vastly different. Not only are his parents now hugely successful, but the twin pines mall is now call lone pine mall. And at the end of Back to the Future 3, Clayton Ravine is now called Eastwood Ravine. Things may be back to normal, but it's not completely normal. That's what happened after Yesterday's Enterprise. Before the Enterprise C came through the rift, there was no Sela. When it went back through the rift with Tasha Yar onboard, there was.