We'll still be talking about the so-called death of physical media in a decade.
As much as I hate to sound like a smart ass, it's happening. I work in a store that sells a lot of media. And sales our down. And not just in our store, in the entire chain I work for.
Several chains of media stores in the Netherlands have gone bankrupt. Other stores that sell dvd/blurays have been seeing a steady decline for over a year now. This is a combination of the faltering economy and people being able to download movies illegally. With so many movies being between 15 and 20 euros on dvd or just over 20 euros for BR when they are just released, it's not strange that people will choose to buy things they actually need in stead of a luxury item they can life without.
And there in lies the rub; things they can life without. We, as fans of shows, types of movies, gamers, things like that.... we NEED these things, so we will keep on buying them, and since our biggest social interaction is with people we relate to and think the same way, we see no decline in sales of dvds/blurays, since everybody we know is buying IronMan 3, GTAV, the new Star Trek, the new BR release of that old show we all love.
But we are but a small group of people out there, and the rest of them are saying to hell with 22 euros for the Hobbit, I need new underwear, I'll download the Hobbit for free on a torrent later. It's not nice, it's illegal, but it's the truth.