Of course, one aspect of all this hasn't been commented on and that's the politics. Russia and China have command economies and if the powers that be want spaceflight, they'll get it.
Here a lot of the go/no-go decisions on space are made by people who lack even a fundamental understanding of science and the hardware is built by companies who view government contracts as a license to make money.
We don't need new technology, we may need new hardware right now, but what we need most is the sheer will to do it and in a democracy that comes from the bottom up.
If enough congresscritters hear from their constituencies that spaceflight should get a higher priority, it will get that higher priority. If folks think the status quo is fine, then they'll get that too.