Re: Whee are the aliens?
Edit_XYZ wrote:
1. Abiogenesis.
What is the road from a bunch of chemicals to the "simplest" molecules that can replicate themselves halfway reliably?
Let's  VERY optimistically  assume that a specific chain of 100 chemical reactions are enough to create this "simplest" molecule.
Now  Darwinian selection has no part in creating this molecule; for Darwinian selection, you need selfreplication, which you do not yet have.
Which leaves probability in charge. For a very rough approximation, calculate factorial 100. It gives a number so close to 0 [sic] as the chance of this "simplest" molecule emerging, that the chances are life on Earth is alone in the observable universe (and a huge chunk of the unobservable one).

Care to explain just what 100! is a "very rough approximation" of in this context and how you know it even is an approximation?
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CorporalCaptain
