What is the road from a bunch of chemicals to the "simplest" molecules that can replicate themselves halfway reliably?
Let's - VERY optimistically - assume that a specific chain of 100 chemical reactions are enough to create this "simplest" molecule.
Now - Darwinian selection has no part in creating this molecule; for Darwinian selection, you need self-replication, which you do not yet have.
Which leaves probability in charge. For a very rough approximation, calculate factorial 100. It gives a number so close to 0 [sic] as the chance of this "simplest" molecule emerging, that the chances are life on Earth is alone in the observable universe (and a huge chunk of the unobservable one).
Care to explain just what 100! is a "very rough approximation" of in this context and how you know it even is an approximation?