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Old July 15 2013, 05:41 PM   #2864
Rear Admiral
Location: In the bleachers
Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Shooting sometime in 2014 but still going for a summer 2016 release may make sense. But if 2016 is the date, why rush into it, because the 2015 calendar already looks pretty crowded with big name movies. The Movie Insider has these 2015 releases listed:
-- Summer: Avengers 2, Justice League, Terminator 5, Independence Day 2, and another Pirates of the Caribbean movie.
-- Winter: Finding Dory (it's a sequel to Finding Nemo), a Hunger Games sequel, a James Bond movie, and Ant-Man.
-- Also listed for 2015: a Star Wars movie, Avatar 2, a Batman movie, and Prometheus 2.

Star Wars and Avatar 2 will be the 800-pound gorillas in the room. One will probably come out in the summer and the other in the winter. Both should easily do $500 million domestically. Ant-Man and Justice League are new, and except for the Terminator movies and Prometheus, the rest the franchises above have cracked the $300 million mark domestically in previous releases. Really can't see ST3 getting fair due with competition like that. Fiftieth anniversary or not, 2016 seems like the better year.

STID will come in at around $225, domestically. Of the 26 summer releases (May, June, July) from 2009 to 2013 that grossed at least $200 million domestically, ST09 ranks 16, and STID ranks 23.
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