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Old June 23 2013, 06:33 AM   #2382
Out Of My Vulcan Mind
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Opus wrote: View Post
Sooooo... a $5m movie needs to make $10m? A $60m movie needs to then make $120m? And a $250m movie needs to make $500m? Because marketing and distribution is that skewed?
To hit theatrical break-even on the production budget, yes, that's the case as a broad rule of thumb. A movie that misses theatrical breakeven can still turn a profit, though, via revenue from TV, DVD, etc. Plus some films can generate a lot of money in product placement and licensing fees for merchandising.

For example, here are the pertinent parts of an article from Variety about Lions for Lambs in 2007:

The weak box office performance of “Lions for Lambs” marks a rough start for Tom Cruise and Paula Wagner’s United Artists, with the film looking likely to gross no more than $60 million worldwide.

Pic, which boasted the marquee trio of Cruise, Redford (who also directed) and Meryl Streep, isn’t expected to hit the $20 million mark in the U.S. MGM distributed Stateside, and 20th Century Fox Intl. has it overseas.

Removing some of the sting is the fact that the film cost only $35 million to produce.
Some say “Lions” could lose as much as $25 million, although UA and parent company MGM won’t comment on any figures. They said that “Lions” could even be profitable once it gets into its home entertainment and television runs.
And here's Variety on Titanic in December 1997:

The cost to make and market "Titanic" is reportedly close to $300 million. A worldwide gross of $425 million would return about $200 million to the studio, leaving $100 million to be made up by global video, television and other ancillary revenues.
And again in January 1998:

"This picture ("Titanic") has to do something like $500 million [worldwide] just to break even," said a senior production exec. "The good news is that, despite its three hours, it might actually happen."
And a more recent report, this one from CBS/AP, one of many such reports, on John Carter:

The Walt Disney Co. said it expects to book a loss of $200 million on the movie in the quarter through March. That ranks it among Hollywood's all-time biggest money-losers.

Directed by Pixar's Andrew Stanton, the 3-D effects-laden movie about a Civil War veteran transplanted to Mars was already headed to the "Red Ink Planet," according to Cowen & Co. analyst Doug Creutz. Yet he expected a write-down of about half that size.

Disney said "John Carter" has brought in about $184 million in ticket sales worldwide so far. But ticket sales are split roughly in half with theater owners. The movie's production budget is estimated to be about $250 million with about $100 million more spent on marketing.
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Last edited by Out Of My Vulcan Mind; June 23 2013 at 07:31 AM.
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