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Old June 23 2013, 01:57 AM   #2377
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Dart wrote: View Post
Sindatur wrote: View Post
Opus wrote: View Post
This is a bogus fallacy that's been bandied about these boards for years. Untrue.
I don't think Throwback means what was posted. I believe what throwback meant was MoS needs to take in about $450M in order to show a profit. It would be insane to say it needs to have $450M in Profit to be successful, it would need to take in about a Billion to cover a $450M profit

Basic formula that's used around here, I believe is,
Budget + half of Budget for Marketing = Break Even/Profitable
Studio only gets about 1/3 of Foreign Box Office

$190M Budget + $95M = $285M
$214.5M Domestic + $67M (1/3 of $201.7 Foreign) = $281.5
This is with a current figure of $416M

So, The other 4 countries who are to still to release it, The DVD/BD, TV sales and Netflix is all gravy, because the box office has already covered the cost of making the film (The Studios don't want to consider After-theater in Profitability, they want that all to be gravy)

How much Man of Steel needs to bring in, depends upon what percent is Foreign vs Domestic
Seems throwback wasn't clear enough but Opus is on the ball.

The point was made that this whole "formula" you're using which seems to be quoted a lot is in fact rubbish. Let's see some real document from the studios to prove it!! Personally, I can't see any business being run in such a terrible way - except banks and they destroyed the economy of a lot of the western world over and over. Sad but true.
Sure, the marketing may be less than half of budget, or they get a bigger percentage of foreign box office, and maybe there is a minimum profit built into that.

But,I don't see any reason to doubt the formula as to what studios consider a success, if movies make those required numbers, they get sequels, if they come close but don't quite make it there needs to be a compelling reason to approve a sequel (Lucrative tie-in/toy line(s), product placements, better than expected Disk sales, or some reason that gives them faith next one will do better)
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