Y'know, the Spurs have a bit of talent too, so I'd call it a tossup. With the edge going to the home team, but hardly a foregone conclusion.
It'll be a fight.
I think the Spurs actually have more good basketball players than the Heat, aside from the big 3. The Heat don't have anything to match what Gary Neal and Danny Green bring. If Ray Ray was a bit younger, maybe, but today, I don't think so.
But in the NBA Finals talent isn't the biggest factor. In fact, I've seen times when it wasn't a factor at all or so it seemed. The key is, which team "wants" it as opposed to which team has GOT to have it. In game 5, the Spurs saw it as an elimination game which they felt like they HAD to have. The Heat played on their heels because they only "wanted" the game.
Game 6 was a game the Heat felt like they HAD to have and that is how they played. SA wanted that game. The Heat HAD to have it.
Game 7 will be the same. Lose the NBA Finals on your home court AND you're the defending champs? That is a game the Heat feels like they MUST have. SA only wants it. SA faces no disgrace, no shame in losing. The Heat will be crucified if they lose.
I'm a bit sorry I'm going to be right about this series. A part of me was really looking forward to watching LaBron and his jockers try to tap dance around this one. Guess I'll have to be satisfied with needling SA fans because the Lakers will still have the most championships in the last 15 years.