Guys, I'm not trying to diss the Shield show, I am excited for it myself and would love to see it succeed. I guess I'm just trying to temper hopes here a little, not destroy them. I am one of those in the target audience, but I am also a big fan of NCIS. TV Guide recently put out an article that said even the coveted 18+ group was a big part of their viewship. IMHO, given the current big shakeup cliffhanger at the end of this last season, fans, even casual ones, will be tuning in to see the end of it. However, I don't know if Nielsen counts DVR or online watching though. I know I plan on catching Shield the next day online.
I have a hard time keeping interest in watching new episodes of NCIS on Tuesday Nights just because I know eventually I'll see it 20 times on USA Network in a year or so.