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Old May 30 2013, 10:54 PM   #1479
Out Of My Vulcan Mind
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

throwback wrote: View Post
I simply looked at the money that the films generated. I am aware of the changes in the model.
The latter needs to inform analysis of the former.

I think Paramount was expecting the same returns as one of those early 80s films, where the films were returning 5 to 8 times their profits.
No, they weren't expecting returns like that. Very few films with production budgets of $150-200 million gross five, six or seven times their budgets (The Avengers being one of those exceptions - maybe four or five films in that budget range will gross more than 4X or 5X their budgets per year, depending on how many uber-franchise sequels there are, and only on rare occasions will one go up to 6X or 7X its budget). If a film grosses 3X its poduction budget a studio will be thrilled under today's business model (unless it's a rare franchise that usually delivers higher) and if it grosses 2.5X they'll generally be satisfied. Even a lower return than 2.5X can lead to a sequel if the ancillaries are strong enough.

(The 80s movies had premium channels, laser discs, and vhs.)
And they delivered far less revenue than resulted from the explosion in home entertainment revenue that occured in the 1990s.
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