ATM I think $230m North America and $200m Overseas for $430m total. The budget will definitely be cut down for the next one. First change I think would be to film with a 3D camera instead of converting from 2D and more sets indoors with greenscreen instead of outdoors.
They will also reduce the Overseas marketing budget because I think they went the extra mile overseas but have not got massive gains however perhaps the people they hooked with this movie will stick around for the next one. Overseas might benefit more if the release date is changed to March, April or late July/early August because of less competition.
I think they hoped for an $500-600m with this movie but it hasn't materialised, they do however know roughly what the ceiling is now and can budget appropriately.
A little less time between movies and 50th anniverary hoopla, and we'll hit $500 million plus for the next one. We won't know the final international tally till maybe late September.
Also, the constant "dark, dark, DAAAAAARK" hoopla in the promo didn't help. People don't wanna see Star Trek with dark undertones in it during summer blockbuster season.
Thankfully, the movie itself is not JUST "dark". Plenty of humor, bright spots and charm.
Btw, I went to see it with a non-trekkie friend today who's been waiting to see it with me. She was totally unspoiled, kind of a Cumberbatch fan (not the obsessed kind). We went to the Udvar-Hazy IMAX theater. HUMONGOUS crowd. Literally thousands of people. All kinds of people. Little ones (even some babies, ugh, poor things!), big ones, medium ones. A good mix of the genders.
We'd reserved tix earlier so we were able to get into the 4:30 show. The show was sold out (they announced that) and we could literally TASTE the anticipation in the theater. This was my 2nd time (first time on IMAX). I'll be going tomorrow to either a 3D or a 2D with my brother and niece. Brother is an avowed non-Trekkie and niece is a dyed-in-the-wool Trekkie. I'll watch it one more time in 2D and then write a review on the grading thread.
Oh, funny story: On the way out today, I heard (right behind me) someone (I think a dad or an uncle or an older brother) ask a younger dude: So did you like it?
Younger dude: Yeah! It was really good!
Dad: See? Not every good movie has to be Transformers!