I'll say $191 to 200 million. (roughly $3 million a day till thursday, $5-6 million friday, $18-20 million weekend, and $2-3 million monday...)
Are you counting that $5-6 million within the weekend number?
My thinking is $9-10 million for Tuesday to Thursday this week, $18-21 million for the third weekend (Friday to Sunday). That brings it to aroud $185 million, give or take one or two. If you add in the following Monday that could bring it up to just under $190 million.
ATM I think $230m North America and $200m Overseas for $430m total. The budget will definitely be cut down for the next one. First change I think would be to film with a 3D camera instead of converting from 2D and more sets indoors with greenscreen instead of outdoors.
They will also reduce the Overseas marketing budget because I think they went the extra mile overseas but have not got massive gains however perhaps the people they hooked with this movie will stick around for the next one. Overseas might benefit more if the release date is changed to March, April or late July/early August because of less competition.
I think they hoped for an $500-600m with this movie but it hasn't materialised, they do however know roughly what the ceiling is now and can budget appropriately.
I agree entirely. As for a release date change, I think they'll either stick with May or move to November 2016.