Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]
ATM I think $230m North America and $200m Overseas for $430m total. The budget will definitely be cut down for the next one. First change I think would be to film with a 3D camera instead of converting from 2D and more sets indoors with greenscreen instead of outdoors.
They will also reduce the Overseas marketing budget because I think they went the extra mile overseas but have not got massive gains however perhaps the people they hooked with this movie will stick around for the next one. Overseas might benefit more if the release date is changed to March, April or late July/early August because of less competition.
I think they hoped for an $500-600m with this movie but it hasn't materialised, they do however know roughly what the ceiling is now and can budget appropriately.
A little less time between movies and 50th anniverary hoopla, and we'll hit $500 million plus for the next one. We won't know the final international tally till maybe late September.
It is far better to grasp the universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring. Carl Sagan