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Old May 21 2013, 07:38 PM   #837
The Transformed Man
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Re: STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

Flake wrote: View Post
Out Of My Vulcan Mind wrote: View Post
Following the legs of On Stranger Tides is plausible. A take in the low 40s for Memorial Day weekend would keep STiD on pace with Star Trek for the same number of days in release and would match the legs of Tides up to that point - Memorial Day weekend being the second weekend for both STiD and Tides, while it was the third weekend for Star Trek. STiD's third weekend is where we'll see whether it drops off Star Trek's pace and continues to track along the lines of Tides or whether it can keep up stronger legs. If it drops by 50-55% in its third weekend that'll have a ripple effect on the rest of its run and lead to a domestic gross tens of millions less than Star Trek, quite possibly ending up in the $190-210 million range. To have a shot at really strong legs that carries it to $220-230 million it'll need a really good third weekend hold.
Didn't see On Stranger Tides dire 3rd weekend drop! Fingers crossed Star Trek warps past $200m and does not parallel ONS. I do think the second weekend of STID will be a drop like POTC:ONS or worse because of the openers.

beamMe wrote: View Post
Probably, should've, could've, expected... For god's sake!
Thats the nature of trying to predict the box office!
Also bear in mind there's a HUGE difference between Into Darknes and Stranger Tides where they stood after their intial release. Trek scored a Cinemascore rating of A, Stranger Tides word of mouth was much weaker with a B+, and generally U.S. audiences were not very enamored with the 4th film (did great overseas). Additionally Tides was savaged by critics scoring an initial Rottentomatoes rating of 42%, Trek's on the other hand has been very stable at 86% and the film has been well received by critics.

Trying to tie the two together is a bit of a logic leap right now. Let's see how it holds up this weekend and how the intial returns are for next Tuesday and Wednesday before people start passing judgement. Those results will show what kind of legs Trek has or does not have.

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