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Old May 7 2013, 04:10 AM   #194
Timby
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Re: MLB Season Discussion - 2013

Use of Time wrote: View Post
God watching B.J. Upton hit is painful. He's at the point now where he is going down on three straight pitches. I'm about ready to give Jordan Schafer some more playing time.
Not to pat myself on the back (well, okay, maybe a little bit), but this is what I had to say about the Upton signing after it happened:

That's not as awful of an overpay as I was expecting, but it's still going out on a pretty creaky limb. I would not want to be locking up a guy that's very much living on the edge of total collapse for five years. I guess if you want to believe that there's also some chance Upton will ever play back to 2007, he's a high risk / high reward guy, but he feels more like a high risk / medium reward guy, and at that type of commitment I'd rather just sign Josh Hamilton.

Or, put another way, B.J. Upton swing percentage on pitches outside of the zone by year:

2008: 15.0%
2009: 19.6%
2010: 25.3%
2011: 27.2%
2012: 32.7%

And the walk and K rates are catching up to that.
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