Yep, Hershel was right.
Not even remotely.
It wasn't hard to tell what the kid's plan was. Overpower Carl and use him as a shield and bargaining chip. Classic TV tactic, especially when your opposition is a preteen kid and an old cripple. Doubly so when the old cripple is a delusional hippie who thinks the world is full of flowers and kitty cats. In fact, after watching it against just to make sure
, there was absolutely no sign he had any intention of surrendering aside from his words. His body language said it all. He was trying to get Carl to grab his gun and then take advantage of the situation.