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Old February 20 2013, 04:43 PM   #33
Crazy Eddie
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Re: Had in an interesting experience last week...

RAMA wrote: View Post
Nah, Ive been over this already, while there is a lot of speculation (obviously because it's about the future) involved it is based on things happening now, its not just feeling, its based on data, something lacking in most previous futurism.
Futurism has ALWAYS been based on data. The reason futurism has always been so hit and miss is because futurists limit their data sets to what is TECHNICALLY possible and ignore the social/political/economic realities that shape how technology really develops. They look at what is POSSIBLE and assume that it is both feasible and profitable when it may actually be neither. It's the same mistake made by science fiction writers trying to predict what space exploration would look like in the 21st century; they looked at the technology, the state of the art, the capabilities of the rockets and the relative cost and ran from there. They never looked at America's relative lack of public support for space exploration, the incestuous relationship between defense contracts and space projects, the lack of a robust industrial infrastructure, the lack of widespread participation in the technological development that could sustain temporary failure by one or more contractors. In short, they failed to notice that the technology was the ONLY thing that was in place for it to happen and nothing else was.

It's the same mistake YOU continue to make: just because something is possible doesn't make it feasible or profitable. And the reverse also needs to be considered: some things that are currently impossible may wind up jumping the curve just because somebody out there realizes there's a market for them and figures out how to make it happen.

I also think you're misunderstanding the posting of technological advances...they are not there simply because they are cool (but certainly they are that too) as I said in the last's not just one isolated development leading to a Singularity it is much more.
And you have never demonstrated -- or, it seems, even ATTEMPTED to demonstrate -- that any of those technologies fit into a progression towards the singularity. A number of them explicitly don't.
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