Back in the early 90s when I was a member of the NSS and Planetary Society, there was a lot of negative debate directed towards commercialization of space. 20+ years after the Moon landing, they were trying to be conventional. 80-85% of members didnt want to hear about it, there was a small minority that thought it was essential, now its basically the savior of space exploration, and I think NASA will only be a small part of it if at all. It will prob focus on near-earth and extra-solar research and that's it. The first steps to colonizing might not be the Moon or Mars, it might be a techno-philanthropist inspired small company mining asteroids. It might even be a tourist rocket to the moon, familiarity breeds comfort with the environment and may spur others into space. Money talks also of course.