^I think you're probably right on most, if not all grounds. The likes of HBO offer entertainment on a par with many movies nowadays. And as I said before, this did seem an odd choice for Tom for his new potential franchise.
As for Reacher's character, well, no-one is saying that he needs to be analysed over many movies (indeed, his simplicity is one of his main points of appeal). But I do think that the stories are strong enough for cinematic adaptation (though I'd still prefer a HBO ongoing adaptation.
I'd have liked to see an ongoing series of movies, with or without Cruise, but clearly it wasn't to be. But hey, there's always the books - or the inevitable reboot!