Mr Light wrote:
No way, Movie 2 will be all about Smaug, the way Two Towers was all about Saruman. Movie 3 will be Battle of 5 Armies.
I just read the book and there's not a lot of events between Frying Pan and Smaug. You've got Beorn, spiders, elves, Laketown, that's it!
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Looks like it'll probably also include Gandalf exploring Dol Guldur (as seen in the trailers for AUJ before the duology became a triology) and at least the lead-up to the White Council's attack against the Necromancer, if not the attack itself.