Mr Light wrote:
No way, Movie 2 will be all about Smaug, the way Two Towers was all about Saruman. Movie 3 will be Battle of 5 Armies.
I just read the book and there's not a lot of events between Frying Pan and Smaug. You've got Beorn, spiders, elves, Laketown, that's it!
Looks like it'll probably also include Gandalf exploring Dol Guldur (as seen in the trailers for AUJ before the duology became a triology) and at least the lead-up to the White Council's attack against the Necromancer, if not the attack itself.