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Old January 11 2013, 12:08 AM   #218
Timby
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Re: MLB Offseason 2012

Aragorn wrote: View Post
What did Jim Rice suddenly do in year fifteen of eligibility that he didn't do the previous fourteen years?
He hung around on the ballot a lot longer than anyone expected to, and the Red Sox started a massive PR campaign to get him elected, primarily through Dan Shaughnessy, since they have their arm so far up his ass they can move a finger and make him sing "Yankee Doodle Dandy" on command. That's another guy who really doesn't belong -- "most feared hitter," my ass. Barry Bonds was intentionally walked 43 more times in a single season than Jim Rice was in his whole career. J-Rice is 191st in career intentional walks, tied with legends of the game like Geoff Jenkins and Clay Dalrymple, and they didn't even start counting them until the mid-1950s, so there are plenty of more guys that would be ahead of Rice if their numbers weren't lost to time. The most feared hitter of Rice's era was George Brett or Mike Schmidt, not Rice.

But, again, ~narrative~.

Pegaritaville wrote: View Post
Timby wrote: View Post
Pegaritaville wrote: View Post
I was hoping Jack Morris would get voted in. Thought he had a good shot this year. I guess after being on the ballot for 14 years, he's kind of been forgotten.
Morris is an absolutely terrible Hall of Fame candidate. JAWS has him as the 167th best starting pitching candidate for the Hall. Let's say that method is massively unkind to Morris and he's actually in the 60s; only one person from 60-69 is in, and all but Eddie Cicotte are eligible. He'd instantly become one of the worst pitchers in the Hall. I'd be hard-pressed to even call him a borderline candidate; he belongs in the Hall of Good.

The following pitchers were better than Jack Morris, statistically speaking, in roughly the same era and didn't have a prayer at getting into the Hall: Dave Stieb, David Cone, Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, Brett Saberhagen, David Wells, Kevin Appier. I can't think of a single statistical argument for Morris in the Hall.
Morris may not have the best stats, but he was a dominant pitcher in his era and his 175 complete games certainly stands out (and may explain his rather high career 3.92 ERA). He was also the top pitcher on three teams that went on to win the World Series (Detroit, Minnesota and Toronto).
Nobody can seriously say that Jack Morris was the best pitcher in baseball for any substantial length of time, or even any year, because he wasn't. Even though Morris is the guy usually used as a counterweight to "compiler" Bert Blyleven, he's actually the biggest compiler of them all. His best ERA+ in a season was 127; despite his wins and Cy votes, he never really had a great season. He had a decent-length career with good run support and compiled a bunch of wins without ever being really good.

but if you look at more than just stats, I think Morris belongs.
I ... I don't even know how to parse this when we're talking about whether a player belongs in the Hall of Fame, which is a distinction based entirely upon statistics. I mean, I've seen the "best postseason pitcher ever" argument made (and it's already wrong on its face, because that's either Schilling or Mariano Rivera), but it has no standing when you look at the numbers; Morris pitched about as well in the postseason as he did in the regular season, and his one great shining moment that everyone remembers had more to do with Lonnie Smith's baserunning than Morris's pitching.

Jamie Moyer has more wins than Koufax, Marichal, Gibson, Ford and Morris, and has remarkably similar rate statistics to Morris in more innings. Every argument not involving the phrase "Game 7" that you can make in support of Jack Morris can be made in favor of Jamie Moyer, but better. Does anyone think Jamie Moyer is a Hall of Famer?

With Sosa getting the same treatment as McGwire and Palmeiro, and Bonds and Clemens getting only a third of the vote, if anything about the hall has changed, I'd say it's the 500 home runs get you elected automatically. Sosa's numbers really surprised me given he did get along with the media and didn't seem as tainted by the steroid brush as Clemens and Bonds.
Sosa was in the leaked 2003 report of players who pissed hot and there was the corked bat incident, plus writers have never been too kind to him after the way he left Chicago. Statistically, he'd be a borderline candidate outside of the home runs, too -- that .273 average and oh my God the strikeouts work against him.

Last edited by Timby; January 11 2013 at 12:21 AM.
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