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Old January 10 2013, 01:46 AM   #208
Timby
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Re: MLB Offseason 2012

Biggio's a tough call; I actually expected him to have a fairly easy election outside of the "NO FIRST-TIME BALLOT" jackasses. He was one of the faces of the Astros for a long time along with Bagwell, he never complained from having to move from being an all-star catcher to being an all-star 2B (to being an atrocious outfielder), and I sometimes think he doesn't get nearly enough credit for how well he made that transition -- he went from being a beast of a catcher to being an absolute beast of a 2B, when most converted catchers wind up at first or at the DH because their mobility is already gone. In any event the only players with at least 3,000 hits who aren't in the Hall are Palmeiro (who will never get in and I fully expect him to drop off the ballot within five years) and Rose (who is Rose).

He does certainly have some knocks on him, though. His playing forever destroyed his rate stats, his WAR-based stats are good / not great, and he doesn't have great narrative value unless you're Bill James.

That being said, I think he'll get in eventually, but it's certainly plausible that he could have to wait until as late as 2016. The 2014 ballot adds Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Mussina and Kent; 2015 adds the Big Unit, Pedro Martinez, Smoltz and Sheffield. However, in 2016 it calms down to just Junior Griffey and Jim Edmonds. That's a lot of facially similar or better candidates Biggio will be competing with.

I'm astounded by how poorly Bonds did, though. It just goes to show important being nice to sportswriters is. I'm crossing sports, here, but Ray Lewis was involved in a double murder and lied to the cops, yet is hailed as an all-American hero, while Barry Bonds was surly and maybe took dinger juice, but he only murdered baseballs and is considered a pariah.

Fun Bonds fact I realized a while back: He entered the 1992 season with more WAR under his belt than Jack Morris racked up in his entire career.
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