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Old January 7 2013, 08:47 PM   #36
Crazy Eddie
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Re: Information age to "Hybrid Age"

RAMA wrote: View Post
sojourner wrote: View Post
The thing about the Singularity is, I don't even particularly not believe something like that could happen. I just think that -

A) It will take place much further in the future than is worth worrying about.
B) It will cause just as many problems as it solves.
I think this is the key to the change in paradigm...EVERYONE thinks things will advance slowly but surely over time OR disaster and we'll destroy ourselves.
First of all, people think this because even a cursory look at history shows this is exactly what has always happened throughout history. The advent of the bronze age saw an explosion in metallurgical technology and military, social, political and architectural innovations made possible by new tools, weapons, techniques and infrastructure. Yet after an initial burst of innovation lasting some 300 years, further progress slowed to a crawl and new innovations became either subtle variations on what had been done before, or novel uses of old technology in slightly new ways, hundreds of years after the fact. The same thing happened in Iron Age, and again in the age of sail. Arguably it is also true of the mini-paradigm surrounding the invention of gunpowder and firearms, but these too are subject to larger patterns like the Industrial Era, of which the computer revolution is just one small part.

Second of all, you keep using the word "paradigm" or "paradigm shift" incorrectly. It isn't a magic word for "Change I'd like to see," but describes an existing set of patterns and conventions that most people adhere to. The CURRENT paradigm is industrialization and computerization. Were that paradigm to shift, all the industrial and scientific effort that goes into industrial uses for computers and software would be directed in an entirely different direction.

Even if a Singularity creates a society that is post scarcity and and extremely advanced, I'd always hesitate to use the word "utopia".
Good, because the singularity -- if it happens at all -- is unlikely to create anything of the kind.
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