I think both Houston and Atlanta are paper tigers.
I agree. Atlanta looks like the prototypical #1 seed that goes one and done in the playoffs. Houston, OTOH, I can certainly see making it to the AFC Championship game, but I'd count them as the underdogs against either Denver or New England in said game.
Denver only needs to beat Kansas City to win the #2 seed, and so I'd pick them over New England, only because they'll be at home in the likely Denver-New England divisional round game. They beat NE in the divisional round, and then Houston in the AFC Championship Game.
For the NFC, I'd also pick the #2 seed to win the conference this year, most likely Green Bay. San Francisco, likely ending up as the #3 seed, would need to win 3 games to reach the Super Bowl, and they've been too inconsistent this year to manage three consecutive victories against playoff teams. They oscillate between brilliance and mediocrity, not having managed to string together a 3 game winning streak since 2011.
Seattle is of course also a threat in the NFC, though they've been so much better at home than on the road, that I'm not sure they'll be able to manage 3 consecutive road wins. So I'll go with Green Bay in the NFC, though that depends on them winning next Sunday at Minnesota, which feels like a trap game for them.
Denver vs. Green Bay in the Super Bowl would also mean that Aaron Rodgers's second Super Bowl as Packers QB would be against a Denver Broncos team led by an over-35 year old future hall of famer QB......same situation that Brett Favre faced 15 years ago.