As early as Zero Sum Game
, it was clear that the Breen were wary and envious of the Romulans' clout within the Pact, with suggestions that the alliance risked becoming nothing more than "Romulus and Friends" - or so some in the Confederacy government argued. Some of the Breen in that novel seemed as worried about losing control of their destiny to the Romulans as they were paranoid about the Federation's slipstream advantage. While the Tholians and Tzenkethi have plotted and schemed aplenty (the latter against fellow Pact members as well as the Federation) it's clear that the Breen are the aggressive member state with the most to prove to their fellows - they're not just seeking to undermine the UFP or stabilize the Pact, they're seeking a leadership role, and the Romulans are the ally standing in the way of that, simply by virtue of being the strongest member. Aiming to prove themselves as powerful, as resourceful, and as skilled in espionage as the Romulans, able to hold their own against them, has apparently been an ongoing concern of the Breen since the Pact was founded. (Imperator Sozzerozs even suspected that this was motivating the Breen in Silent Weapons
prior to gaining a better understanding of the situation).
Given that most of the Breens' tension with the idea of the Romulans as Pact leaders was already evident back when the two nations had a reasonably coherent policy regarding the Federation, or when remnants of Tal'aura's government were still in a position to work alongside the Breen (Tomalak and Sela's scheme in PoN/RtD), I can't help but wonder if that distrust and resentment will deepen further now that Kamemor's in charge. Now that her regime is running things in Ki Baratan, the Romulans and the Breen are on opposite sides of one of the major issues the Typhon Pact has to grapple with, namely how it relates to its rival/inspiration the Federation. Not only that, but they're clearly positioned to be the leading nations on their respective sides of that ideological divide. The Gorn are going to seek protection under the Romulan wing, and I agree that the Kinshaya are in a position to do so as well. And while the Tholians and Tzenkethi have pursued their own plots against the Federation, it's the Breen who seem to be pooling resources and leading all the combined efforts (I get the impression that the Tholians are off playing with Andor and the Autarch, as his title suggests, is doing whatever the hell he wants, and it's the Breen who are actually the motivating force behind getting them working together. Which makes sense, I'd say, given the relative lack of historical interest with alien contact that both T-races have; old habits die hard). If the Gorn do indeed get in closer with the Romulans and maybe share their concerns and revelations with Kamemor's government, I think it could well lead to a Alpha-Beta division within the Pact, with the Romulans and Breen struggling for dominance.
I agree the Federation's next act should be to try and encourage the Klingons to build bridges with the Romulans, Gorn and Kinshaya and stabilize the Beta Quadrant so it can focus on the hostile bloc on the Alpha side.
EDIT: I also have my theories regarding The Fall
, and how it might relate to the Pact's internal disagreements. I won't say much because some of it edges into story idea territory, but I'll be interested to see if the reality bears any relation to what I've pondered.