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Old December 9 2012, 11:34 PM   #1
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Thoughts on the Typhon Pact (Cold Equations spoilers)

The Cold Equations series has gone into more detail about the divisions inside the Typhon Pact. Next year's Fall series, taking in crews from all the different series as the galaxy reacts to a barbarous act allegedly commtted by the Pact, may see the pact shatter.

Broadly speaking, there seem to be two tendencies in the Typhon Pact, with the three Beta Quadrant members interested in detente with the Federation and the three Alpha Quadrant members more interested in conflict. The Romulan Star Empire, apparently the single most powerful Pact member-state, now leads the detente tendency under Praetor Kamemor. This is a bit of a shift in Romulan policy, since the Romulans who took the RSE into the Pact--Tomalak, for instance, and Tal'Aura herself--hoped to use the Typhon Pact to magnify Romulan strength relative to the Federation, perhaps in preparation for a war against the Federation and the Klingon Empire. Kamemor has no truck with this, and in Silent Weapons was willing to let the Breen hang themselves rather than to abandon her detente.

The Romulans seem to be in a position to support the Gorn Hegemony, which has a relatively good historical relationship with the Federation and seems to have joined the Typhon Pact as much out of fear of the Klingon Empire as anything else. The Bacco-Sozzerozs initiative to get the Romulans to become Gorn patrons, protecting the Hegemony against the Breen, might work.The Kinshaya didn't have much of a relationship with the Federation at all, joining the Pact exclusively out of a (IMHO) justified fear of the Klingon Empire. Conceivably the Holy Order might also be interested in Romulan sponsorship. A sub-alliance within the Pact, featuring the larger Romulans extending patronage to the Gorn and the Kinshaya, in the context of Romulan-led detente with the Federation, could be durable.

(Much depends on the evolution of the Klingon Empire. If the Klingon Empire's policies towards its neighbours changed, then neither the Gorn nor the Kinshaya would feel the same impetus to remain inside the Typhon Pact for protection. For that matter, the Romulans, too, might change their minds.)

This Romulan sub-alliance is going to be shaken very badly by the upcoming Hobus supernova, of course. For that matter, the course of Romulan politics is not yet settled. If there was a shift towards more anti-Federation policies, then Tal'Aura vision of a Romulan-led Pact versus the Federation may yet be fulfilled.

The Alpha Quadrant powers in the Typhon Pact seem much less inclined towards detente with the Federation. For the Breen and the Tzenkethi, anti-Federation sentiment seems to be visceral, rooted in a sense of the Federation's fundamental wrongness, whether we're talking about the multi-species Federation's refusal to hide the species identities of its citizens under mask or the democratic governance that allows Federation citizens regardless of their genome to participate in policymaking. It seems unlikely that either power will stop being anti-Federation, frankly. Similarly, the Tholians are still--somewhat understandably--still caught up by the Federation exploitation of Shedai relics that, among other things, accidentally led on multiple occasions to the mental rape of the Tholian species by their ancient oppressors. The Breen and the Tholians, at least, seem to be fairly large powers, approaching the Romulan Empire in size and larger than the Gorn and Kinshaya; the Tzenkethi might also fall into this size category.
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