Roger Wilco wrote:
I have no data to back this up, but my instinct is that once you're in the playoffs it's pretty much a crapshoot. I mean if you're in the Wild Card Round it's three wins to the Super Bowl, if you have a first round bye it's two wins. Anything's possible in three games, especially at this level of competition.
Interestingly enough, 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls involved teams that were seeded #3, 4, 5, or 6 beating teams that were seeded #1 or 2. So yeah, it's been pretty much a crapshoot in recent years.
Or at least, that's one interpretation. The other interpretation is that it's not so much luck as it is the fact that a teams' talent level changes throughout the course of the season, and those #3, 4, 5, and 6 seeded teams that won Super Bowls were simply peaking at the right time.