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Old November 30 2012, 03:47 AM   #92
Timby
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Re: MLB Offseason 2012

Alidar Jarok wrote: View Post
Timby, you can stop gloating. Phils pass on Upton and he signs with the Braves (5 years, $75.25 million).
That's not as awful of an overpay as I was expecting, but it's still going out on a pretty creaky limb. I would not want to be locking up a guy that's very much living on the edge of total collapse for five years. I guess if you want to believe that there's also some chance Upton will ever play back to 2007, he's a high risk / high reward guy, but he feels more like a high risk / medium reward guy, and at that type of commitment I'd rather just sign Josh Hamilton.

Or, put another way, B.J. Upton swing percentage on pitches outside of the zone by year:

2008: 15.0%
2009: 19.6%
2010: 25.3%
2011: 27.2%
2012: 32.7%

And the walk and K rates are catching up to that.
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